Guardians vs Twins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 11

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 11, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Guardians (72-65) are -145 favorites vs the Twins (69-69)
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber (9-8), 2.96 ERA
  • Twins starting pitcher: Josh Winder (4-3), 3.77 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSN

The Cleveland Guardians (-145) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (+120) on Sunday, September 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.

The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Guardians vs Twins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Guardians are 72-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 62-73 ATS.

Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians-1.5 +120O 7.5 -120-145
Twins +1.5 -145U 7.5 +100+120

Guardians vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s matchup with 54.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Twins vs Guardians and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 55 games (+13.90 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Myles Straw has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+11.85 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 27 of his last 37 games (+11.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.20 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the Total Bases Under in 27 of his last 39 games (+9.90 Units / 17% ROI)

Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 48 games at home (+16.80 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Nick Gordon has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 24 games (+14.05 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+13.05 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.80 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Jose Miranda has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 51 games (+11.80 Units / 21% ROI)

Twins vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carlos Correa 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Gio Urshela 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Jake Cave 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Jose Miranda 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
Luis Arraez 0.5 +900 0.5 -10000

Twins vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carlos Correa 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Gio Urshela 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Jake Cave 0.5 -125 0.5 -110
Jose Miranda 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Luis Arraez 1.5 +175 1.5 -250

Twins vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carlos Correa 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Gio Urshela 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Jake Cave 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
Jose Miranda 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Luis Arraez 0.5 +270 0.5 -450

Twins vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Josh Winder 2.5 -105 2.5 -135
Shane Bieber 5.5 -190 5.5 +130
Shane Bieber 6.5 +100 6.5 -145
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 61 away games (+13.55 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 31 away games (+13.25 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 23 away games (+11.10 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 away games (+6.40 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 31 games (+5.70 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 76 of their last 136 games (+10.85 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.60 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 93% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+1.85 Units / 6% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 70-65 against the Run Line (-0.55 Units / -0.32% ROI).

  • 72-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.05 Units / 4.75% ROI
  • 59-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.5 Units / -10.39% ROI
  • 68-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.85 Units / 1.89% ROI

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 62-73 against the Run Line (-13.8 Units / -8.44% ROI).

  • 69-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.4 Units / -3.56% ROI
  • 66-60 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.85 Units / 0.57% ROI
  • 60-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.9 Units / -8.56% ROI

Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 58% of the time (389/665) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 30% (361/1,189) against Shane Bieber this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 87th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 32% (206/638) against Shane Bieber this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 88th Percentile.

Shane Bieber has allowed a slugging percentage of just .153 (35 Total Bases / 229 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — 98th Percentile.

Josh Winder: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

No Matchup notes for this Game

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Guardians are 11-56 (.164) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Guardians are 42-5 (.894) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.

The Guardians are 17-2 (.895) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .803.

The Guardians are 12-53 (.185) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .116.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Twins are just 4-11 (.267) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are 61-20 (.753) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Twins are just 6-9 (.400) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are just 15-27 (.357) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians hitters do not have an extra-base hit out of 14 total hits against LHP this month (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

Guardians hitters have just 667 strikeouts in 3,874 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .331 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.

The Twins are batting just .313 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Twins hitters have an OPS of just .421 (38 PA’s) against LHP this month (5 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .756.

Twins hitters have an OBP of .321 (3,720 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .311.

Twins hitters have just 59 strikeouts in 395 PA’s (15%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .197 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

The longest HR allowed by the Guardians pitchers this season traveled 446.0 feet — — 2nd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 462.9

The Guardians pitchers have allowed the 3rd hardest ball in play hit (114.9 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.2).

The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

The Twins pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.3 MPH since the start of last season (7,522 balls in play) — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Twins vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
  • Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
  • Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Leg, Day-to-Day
  • Christopher Archer (Twins): Pectoral, D15
  • Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D60
  • John Ober (Twins): Groin, D60
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
  • Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D60
  • Aaron Civale (Guardians): Forearm, D15
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
  • Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Twins vs Guardians and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.