- The Guardians (72-65) are -145 favorites vs the Twins (69-69)
- Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber (9-8), 2.96 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Josh Winder (4-3), 3.77 ERA
- Watch the game on BSN
The Cleveland Guardians (-145) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (+120) on Sunday, September 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Guardians vs Twins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Guardians are 72-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 62-73 ATS.
Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +120 | O 7.5 -120 | -145 |
| Twins | +1.5 -145 | U 7.5 +100 | +120 |
Guardians vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s matchup with 54.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 55 games (+13.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+11.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 27 of his last 37 games (+11.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Total Bases Under in 27 of his last 39 games (+9.90 Units / 17% ROI)
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 48 games at home (+16.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- Nick Gordon has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 24 games (+14.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+13.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 51 games (+11.80 Units / 21% ROI)
Twins vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jake Cave | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jose Miranda | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Luis Arraez | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
Twins vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jake Cave | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -110 |
| Jose Miranda | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Luis Arraez | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
Twins vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jake Cave | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jose Miranda | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Luis Arraez | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
Twins vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Winder | 2.5 -105 | 2.5 -135 |
| Shane Bieber | 5.5 -190 | 5.5 +130 |
| Shane Bieber | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -145 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 61 away games (+13.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 31 away games (+13.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 23 away games (+11.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 away games (+6.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 31 games (+5.70 Units / 16% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 76 of their last 136 games (+10.85 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 93% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+1.85 Units / 6% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 70-65 against the Run Line (-0.55 Units / -0.32% ROI).
- 72-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.05 Units / 4.75% ROI
- 59-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.5 Units / -10.39% ROI
- 68-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.85 Units / 1.89% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 62-73 against the Run Line (-13.8 Units / -8.44% ROI).
- 69-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.4 Units / -3.56% ROI
- 66-60 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.85 Units / 0.57% ROI
- 60-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.9 Units / -8.56% ROI
Shane Bieber: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 58% of the time (389/665) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% (361/1,189) against Shane Bieber this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 87th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 32% (206/638) against Shane Bieber this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 88th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has allowed a slugging percentage of just .153 (35 Total Bases / 229 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — 98th Percentile.
Josh Winder: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 11-56 (.164) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Guardians are 42-5 (.894) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Guardians are 17-2 (.895) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Guardians are 12-53 (.185) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .116.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are just 4-11 (.267) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 61-20 (.753) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Twins are just 6-9 (.400) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 15-27 (.357) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians hitters do not have an extra-base hit out of 14 total hits against LHP this month (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Guardians hitters have just 667 strikeouts in 3,874 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .331 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .313 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .421 (38 PA’s) against LHP this month (5 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .756.
Twins hitters have an OBP of .321 (3,720 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Twins hitters have just 59 strikeouts in 395 PA’s (15%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .197 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
The longest HR allowed by the Guardians pitchers this season traveled 446.0 feet — — 2nd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 462.9
The Guardians pitchers have allowed the 3rd hardest ball in play hit (114.9 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.2).
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.3 MPH since the start of last season (7,522 balls in play) — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
Twins vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
- Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Christopher Archer (Twins): Pectoral, D15
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D60
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Forearm, D15
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
- Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15
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