Guardians vs Twins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 9

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 09, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Guardians (70-65) are -105 favorites vs the Twins (69-67)
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill (11-5), 3.55 ERA
  • Twins starting pitcher: Dylan Bundy (8-6), 4.33 ERA
  • Watch the game on Apple TV+

The Cleveland Guardians (-105) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-115) on Friday, September 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.

The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).

The Guardians vs Twins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Guardians are 70-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 62-72 ATS.

Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians-1.5 +165O 7.5 -105-105
Twins +1.5 -200U 7.5 -115-115

Guardians vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s matchup with 54.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Amed Rosario has hit the Total Bases Under in 27 of his last 37 games (+12.85 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 35 games (+12.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 53 games (+11.65 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.20 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.05 Units / 31% ROI)

Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • No trends found

Twins vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carlos Correa 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Gary Sanchez 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Gilberto Celestino 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000
Gio Urshela 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Jake Cave 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500

Twins vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carlos Correa 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Gary Sanchez 0.5 -140 0.5 -105
Gilberto Celestino 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Gio Urshela 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Jake Cave 0.5 -135 0.5 -105

Twins vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carlos Correa 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Gary Sanchez 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Gilberto Celestino 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Gio Urshela 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Jake Cave 0.5 +225 0.5 -350

Twins vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Dylan Bundy 2.5 +135 2.5 -190
Cal Quantrill 3.5 -110 3.5 -130
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 22 away games (+10.30 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 away games (+9.40 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 away games (+9.10 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 away games (+8.75 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 29 games (+8.10 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 76 of their last 134 games (+13.20 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 18 of their last 33 games at home (+6.70 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+4.00 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.15 Units / 2% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 69-65 against the Run Line (-1.95 Units / -1.15% ROI).

  • 70-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.05 Units / 3.62% ROI
  • 57-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.5 Units / -11.89% ROI
  • 68-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.2 Units / 3.51% ROI

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 62-72 against the Run Line (-12.2 Units / -7.53% ROI).

  • 69-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.2 Units / -2.37% ROI
  • 64-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.15 Units / -0.78% ROI
  • 60-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.55 Units / -7.11% ROI

Cal Quantrill has a strikeout rate of just 32% (101 SO in 313 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.

Cal Quantrill has a strike rate of just 61% (434/709) in two strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — fourth Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (213/1,153) against Cal Quantrill this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — ninth Percentile.

28 of Cal Quantrill’s 93 breaking pitch strikeouts (30%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 96th Percentile.

Dylan Bundy: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Dylan Bundy has a strike rate of 74% (365/492) in two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 38% of Dylan Bundy’s breaking pitches (431/1,124) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 47% — first Percentile.

Dylan Bundy has struck out just 12% (24/209) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.

Dylan Bundy has a strike rate of 72% (653/904) in two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Guardians are 11-56 (.164) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Guardians are 10-6 (.625) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Guardians are 41-5 (.891) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .722.

The Guardians are 46-4 (.920) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .800.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Twins are 40-29 (.580) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .530.

The Twins are just 10-35 (.222) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.

The Twins are just 9-27 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.

The Twins are 61-20 (.753) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .981 (2,072 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.084.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .330 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.

Guardians hitters have just 657 strikeouts in 3,795 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have just 928 strikeouts in 5,092 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Twins hitters have an OBP of .320 (3,637 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .310.

The Twins are batting just .310 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.

Twins hitters have an OBP of just .184 (38 PA’s) against LHP this month (5 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.

Twins hitters are slugging .599 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .570.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .221 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Guardians pitchers have walked 30 of 272 batters (11%) this month (7 games) — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Twins vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
  • Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
  • Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D60
  • John Ober (Twins): Groin, D60
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
  • Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D60
  • Aaron Civale (Guardians): Forearm, D15
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
  • Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.