- The Guardians (70-65) are -105 favorites vs the Twins (69-67)
- Guardians starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill (11-5), 3.55 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Dylan Bundy (8-6), 4.33 ERA
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The Cleveland Guardians (-105) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-115) on Friday, September 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Guardians vs Twins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Guardians are 70-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 62-72 ATS.
Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +165 | O 7.5 -105 | -105 |
| Twins | +1.5 -200 | U 7.5 -115 | -115 |
Guardians vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s matchup with 54.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Amed Rosario has hit the Total Bases Under in 27 of his last 37 games (+12.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 35 games (+12.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 53 games (+11.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.05 Units / 31% ROI)
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- No trends found
Twins vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Gilberto Celestino | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jake Cave | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Twins vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 -105 |
| Gilberto Celestino | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jake Cave | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
Twins vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Gilberto Celestino | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jake Cave | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
Twins vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Bundy | 2.5 +135 | 2.5 -190 |
| Cal Quantrill | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -130 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 22 away games (+10.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 away games (+9.40 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 away games (+9.10 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 away games (+8.75 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 29 games (+8.10 Units / 25% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 76 of their last 134 games (+13.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 18 of their last 33 games at home (+6.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+4.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.15 Units / 2% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 69-65 against the Run Line (-1.95 Units / -1.15% ROI).
- 70-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.05 Units / 3.62% ROI
- 57-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.5 Units / -11.89% ROI
- 68-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.2 Units / 3.51% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 62-72 against the Run Line (-12.2 Units / -7.53% ROI).
- 69-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.2 Units / -2.37% ROI
- 64-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.15 Units / -0.78% ROI
- 60-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.55 Units / -7.11% ROI
Cal Quantrill: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cal Quantrill has a strikeout rate of just 32% (101 SO in 313 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has a strike rate of just 61% (434/709) in two strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (213/1,153) against Cal Quantrill this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — ninth Percentile.
28 of Cal Quantrill’s 93 breaking pitch strikeouts (30%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 96th Percentile.
Dylan Bundy: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Bundy has a strike rate of 74% (365/492) in two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 38% of Dylan Bundy’s breaking pitches (431/1,124) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 47% — first Percentile.
Dylan Bundy has struck out just 12% (24/209) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.
Dylan Bundy has a strike rate of 72% (653/904) in two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 11-56 (.164) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Guardians are 10-6 (.625) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 41-5 (.891) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
The Guardians are 46-4 (.920) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are 40-29 (.580) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Twins are just 10-35 (.222) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Twins are just 9-27 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.
The Twins are 61-20 (.753) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .981 (2,072 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.084.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .330 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Guardians hitters have just 657 strikeouts in 3,795 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have just 928 strikeouts in 5,092 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OBP of .320 (3,637 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
The Twins are batting just .310 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .184 (38 PA’s) against LHP this month (5 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Twins hitters are slugging .599 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .570.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .221 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Guardians pitchers have walked 30 of 272 batters (11%) this month (7 games) — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Twins vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D60
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Forearm, D15
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
- Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15
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