- The Guardians are -135 favorites vs the White Sox
- Guardians vs White Sox Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Guardians / White Sox TV Channel: GDTV | CHSN
The Cleveland Guardians (-125) visit Rate Field to take on the Chicago White Sox (+105) on Friday, July 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Chicago, IL, IL.
This season, the Guardians are 43-48 against the spread (ATS), while the White Sox are 51-42 ATS.
Guardians vs White Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams 5-4, 3.65 ERA
- White Sox starting pitcher: Shane Smith 3-7, 4.13 ERA
Guardians vs. White Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +135 | O 9 -120 | -125 |
| White Sox | +1.5 -160 | U 9 +100 | +105 |
Guardians vs White Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s MLB game with 53.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Angel Martinez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+21.00 Units / 262% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+9.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- Gavin Williams has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.50 Units / 83% ROI)
- Nolan Jones has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+7.20 Units / 80% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best White Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Tim Elko has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+13.50 Units / 135% ROI)
- Miguel Vargas has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+13.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- Chase Meidroth has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+8.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- Shane Smith has hit the Walks Allowed Over in his last 8 games (+8.55 Units / 83% ROI)
- Mike Tauchman has hit the Walks Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 56% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 54 games (+14.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 52 of their last 88 games (+12.04 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 24 away games (+11.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 17 away games (+6.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 away games (+6.55 Units / 38% ROI)
White Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago White Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 46 games at home (+13.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 49 of their last 84 games (+10.19 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 59 games (+8.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 69 games (+7.90 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+7.55 Units / 20% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 48-42 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / -1.23% ROI).
- 43-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.75 Units / -3.62% ROI
- 38-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.55 Units / -14.75% ROI
- 49-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.25 Units / 7.14% ROI
White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the White Sox are 51-42 against the Run Line (+3 Units / 2.67% ROI).
- 31-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.91 Units / -17.02% ROI
- 39-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.25 Units / -13.86% ROI
- 48-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.85 Units / 4.76% ROI
White Sox vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Luis Robert (CWS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Miguel Vargas (CWS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Bo Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
White Sox vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chase Meidroth (CWS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Edgar Quero (CWS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Lenyn Sosa (CWS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Luis Robert (CWS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
White Sox vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Luis Robert (CWS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Miguel Vargas (CWS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Edgar Quero (CWS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
White Sox vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Allen (CLE) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -115 |
| Shane Smith (CWS) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Gavin Williams has walked 13% of batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Gavin Williams has walked 14% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Gavin Williams has walked 16% of opponent 7-8-9 hitters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.
Gavin Williams has allowed three-ball counts to 31% of right-handed batters he faced (66/210 PA’s) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — first Percentile.
White Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jonathan Cannon has allowed an OPS of .996 (126 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .686 — 0 Percentile.
Jonathan Cannon has allowed a slugging percentage of .607 (68 Total Bases / 112 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .385 — first Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of 39% (25/65) versus Jonathan Cannon with runners in scoring position in the 2024 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Jonathan Cannon has an ERA of 7.36 (55.0 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 3.96 — second Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the White Sox
The Guardians are 106-5 (.955) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .862.
The Guardians are 20-0 (.952) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .750.
The Guardians are 113-3 (.974) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .902.
The Guardians are 35-3 (.921) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .806.
White Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The White Sox are just 5-85 (.056) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The White Sox were just 33-23 (.589) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The White Sox are just 72-183 (.282) since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The White Sox are just 69-154 (.309) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have struck out in 30% of their PA’s in righty-righty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .333 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .384.
Guardians hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 31% over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Guardians are batting just .284 in hitter’s counts this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .333.
White Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
White Sox hitters have an OPS of just .625 (6,931 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
White Sox hitters have an OPS of just .626 (9,265 PA’s) since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The White Sox have a winning percentage of just 28% since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The White Sox have a winning percentage of just 23% on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 26% against the Guardians pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 10% of batters this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
White Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
White Sox pitchers have won only 6% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The White Sox have won just 5% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
White Sox pitchers walked 643 of 6,241 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The White Sox have won just 12% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
More MLB Reading:
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