- The Guardians are -110 favorites vs the White Sox
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee
- White Sox starting pitcher: Dylan Cease
- Watch the game on NBCS-CHI
The Cleveland Guardians (-110) visit Guaranteed Rate Field to take on the Chicago White Sox (-110) on Thursday, July 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Chicago.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Guardians vs White Sox Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 51-51 against the spread (ATS), while the White Sox are 51-52 ATS.
Guardians vs. White Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +155 | O 8 +100 | -110 |
| White Sox | +1.5 -190 | U 8 -120 | -110 |
Guardians vs White Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the White Sox will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and White Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 17 away games (+8.45 Units / 45% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+8.10 Units / 87% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.85 Units / 54% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best White Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Singles Under in 34 of his last 40 games (+22.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- Eloy Jimenez has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 33 games (+14.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- Lance Lynn has hit the Earned Runs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.10 Units / 52% ROI)
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+11.30 Units / 103% ROI)
- Elvis Andrus has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+10.95 Units / 24% ROI)
White Sox vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oscar Colas | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Tim Anderson | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
White Sox vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oscar Colas | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Tim Anderson | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
White Sox vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oscar Colas | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Tim Anderson | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -400 |
White Sox vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bibee | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -155 |
| Dylan Cease | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 86 games (+14.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 51 games (+12.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 60 games (+11.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+5.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 51 games (+3.95 Units / 6% ROI)
White Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 41 games at home (+10.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games at home (+9.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.50 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games (+0.35 Units / 2% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 51-51 against the Run Line (-1.05 Units / -0.81% ROI).
- 51-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.6 Units / -8.03% ROI
- 42-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.2 Units / -17.88% ROI
- 56-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.5 Units / 9.4% ROI
White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the White Sox have gone 51-52 against the Run Line (-11.25 Units / -8.11% ROI).
- 41-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.4 Units / -18.06% ROI
- 46-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.4 Units / -8.34% ROI
- 51-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.5 Units / 0.44% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .159 (7-for-44) against Tanner Bibee over the last 14 days (2 games) — tied for 3rd best in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .246 — 95th Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has not walked any of the 23 batters that he has faced vs left-handed batters — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has allowed a slugging percentage of just .267 (40 Total Bases / 150 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .429 — 97th Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has allowed an OPS of just .261 (23 PA’s) vs left-handed batters — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .787 — 98th Percentile.
White Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease has walked 29 of 235 right-handed batters (12%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Dylan Cease has walked 4 of 23 right-handed batters (17%) over the last 14 days (2 games) — 2nd highest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown his slider 42% of the time (2,151/5,174) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has a strike rate of just 61% (618/1,008) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — fourth Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the White Sox
The Guardians are 27-87 (.237) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Guardians are 29-70 (.293) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Guardians were 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Guardians are 18-95 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .092.
White Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The White Sox are just 33-6 (.846) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The White Sox are just 32-7 (.821) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .897.
The White Sox are just 13-27 (.325) after a win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.
The White Sox are just 5-16 (.238) after a road win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .492.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 500 strikeouts in 2,713 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 705 strikeouts in 3,857 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,295 strikeouts in 7,297 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,827 strikeouts in 10,020 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
White Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
White Sox hitters have an OBP of just .216 (2,039 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
White Sox hitters have an OBP of just .290 (2,948 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
White Sox hitters have drawn 188 walks in 2,948 PA’s (6%) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
White Sox hitters have 162 extra-base hits out of 497 total hits (just 33%) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 151 of 2,379 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 63 of 919 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.16 (942.2 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.08.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.83 (1144.1 IP) on the road since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.25.
White Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
White Sox pitchers have walked 407 of 4,000 batters (10%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against White Sox pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against White Sox pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against White Sox pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
White Sox vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Garrett Crochet (White Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Roman González (White Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Liam Hendriks (White Sox): Elbow, D15
- Matthew Foster (White Sox): Forearm, D60
- Michael Clevinger (White Sox): Biceps, D15
- Shane Bieber (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
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