- The Guardians are -135 favorites vs the White Sox
- Guardians starting pitcher: Xzavion Curry
- White Sox starting pitcher: Dany Toussaint
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The Cleveland Guardians (-135) visit Guaranteed Rate Field to take on the Chicago White Sox (+115) on Friday, July 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Chicago.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Guardians vs White Sox Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 52-51 against the spread (ATS), while the White Sox are 51-53 ATS.
Guardians vs. White Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +110 | O 10 -110 | -135 |
| White Sox | +1.5 -135 | U 10 -110 | +115 |
Guardians vs White Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 67.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and White Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+11.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 18 away games (+9.55 Units / 48% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+9.20 Units / 89% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+8.35 Units / 58% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best White Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 41 games (+23.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- Eloy Jimenez has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 34 games (+15.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- Lance Lynn has hit the Earned Runs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.10 Units / 52% ROI)
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+11.30 Units / 103% ROI)
- Elvis Andrus has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+10.95 Units / 24% ROI)
White Sox vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oscar Colas | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Tim Anderson | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 |
White Sox vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oscar Colas | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Will Brennan | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Tim Anderson | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -200 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
White Sox vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oscar Colas | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Tim Anderson | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
White Sox vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Touki Toussaint | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -135 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 87 games (+13.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 52 games (+13.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 61 games (+12.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+6.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 52 games (+4.95 Units / 7% ROI)
White Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 41 games at home (+10.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+8.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.50 Units / 57% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 52-51 against the Run Line (+0.5 Units / 0.38% ROI).
- 52-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.6 Units / -7.21% ROI
- 43-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.2 Units / -16.83% ROI
- 56-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.4 Units / 8.34% ROI
White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the White Sox have gone 51-53 against the Run Line (-12.95 Units / -9.22% ROI).
- 41-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.45 Units / -18.78% ROI
- 47-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.4 Units / -7.38% ROI
- 51-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.6 Units / -0.52% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 23% (21/92) against Xzavion Curry this season — 3rd lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 44% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (53/170) against Xzavion Curry this season — 6th lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 44% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 40% (15/38) against Xzavion Curry with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 18% (28/159) against Xzavion Curry this season — 7th lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 27% — ninth Percentile.
White Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (16/93) against Touki Toussaint over the last 14 days (3 games) — 8th lowest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 28% — ninth Percentile.
Touki Toussaint has a strike rate of just 56% (122/219) over the last 14 days (3 games) — tied for 6th lowest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 64% — seventh Percentile.
Touki Toussaint has a first-pitch strike rate of just 45% (24/53) over the last 14 days (3 games) — 7th lowest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 62% — fifth Percentile.
Touki Toussaint has a first-pitch strike rate of just 45% (24/53) — 4th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 62% — third Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the White Sox
The Guardians are 27-87 (.237) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Guardians are 11-30 (.268) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .148.
The Guardians are just 11-16 (.407) after a home win this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .542.
The Guardians are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
White Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The White Sox are just 33-6 (.846) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The White Sox are just 32-7 (.821) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The White Sox are just 13-27 (.325) after a win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .519.
The White Sox are just 11-13 (.458) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .610.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,301 strikeouts in 7,331 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,836 strikeouts in 10,063 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .359 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
White Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
White Sox hitters have an OPS of just .459 (2,055 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.
White Sox hitters have an OPS of just .621 (1,228 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.
White Sox hitters have an OBP of just .216 (2,055 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
White Sox hitters have 162 extra-base hits out of 499 total hits (just 33%) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 152 of 2,388 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 64 of 928 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 2.78 (265.1 IP) against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.27.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .230 against Guardians pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
White Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
White Sox pitchers have walked 410 of 4,043 batters (10%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
White Sox pitchers have walked 60 of 484 batters (12%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against White Sox pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against White Sox pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
White Sox vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Garrett Crochet (White Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Roman González (White Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Liam Hendriks (White Sox): Elbow, D15
- Matthew Foster (White Sox): Forearm, D60
- Michael Clevinger (White Sox): Biceps, D15
- Trayce Thompson (White Sox): Undisclosed, D60
- Shane Bieber (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Noah Syndergaard (Guardians): Finger, D15
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
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