- The White Sox (76-72) are -135 favorites vs the Guardians (81-67)
- Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie (10-11), 3.08 ERA
- White Sox starting pitcher: Michael Lynn (7-5), 3.99 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-CHI
The Cleveland Guardians (+110) visit Guaranteed Rate Field to take on the Chicago White Sox (-135) on Wednesday, September 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Chicago.
The White Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Guardians vs White Sox Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Guardians are 81-66 against the spread (ATS), while the White Sox are 66-80 ATS.
Guardians vs. White Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -185 | O 8 -110 | +110 |
| White Sox | -1.5 +150 | U 8 -110 | -135 |
Guardians vs White Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and White Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 31 games (+13.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 37 of his last 66 games (+11.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 30 away games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 48 of his last 67 games (+10.20 Units / 7% ROI)
Best White Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jose Abreu has hit the Singles Over in 71 of his last 105 games (+30.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Hits Over in 71 of his last 107 games (+20.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Over in 59 of his last 107 games (+17.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- Danny Mendick has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+15.60 Units / 142% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+15.20 Units / 89% ROI)
White Sox vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Andrew Vaughn | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Eloy Jimenez | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Gavin Sheets | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
White Sox vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Andrew Vaughn | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Eloy Jimenez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Gavin Sheets | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
White Sox vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Andrew Vaughn | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Eloy Jimenez | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -175 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Gavin Sheets | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
White Sox vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lance Lynn | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -150 |
| Triston McKenzie | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -165 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 63 away games (+16.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 33 away games (+15.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 25 away games (+13.60 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 30 games (+6.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+6.40 Units / 32% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the White Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 41 of their last 71 games at home (+10.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+4.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 19 games (+3.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.35 Units / 14% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 76-70 against the Run Line (+2.2 Units / 1.21% ROI).
- 81-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.45 Units / 8.43% ROI
- 65-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.95 Units / -9.26% ROI
- 73-65 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.25 Units / 0.77% ROI
White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 66-80 against the Run Line (-15.5 Units / -9% ROI).
- 75-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.5 Units / -7.68% ROI
- 65-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.6 Units / -7.25% ROI
- 71-65 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.1 Units / 0.06% ROI
Triston McKenzie: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (145/455) against Triston McKenzie this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (53/171) against Triston McKenzie in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 32% (88/276) against Triston McKenzie this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — second Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has thrown elevated pitches 46% of the time (239/516) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 97th Percentile.
Michael Lynn: White Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 18% (59/320) against Lance Lynn since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 42% (118/283) against Lance Lynn on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Lance Lynn has a strikeout rate of 43% (49 SO in 114 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Lance Lynn has thrown fastballs 67% of the time (214/319) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the White Sox
The Guardians are 15-55 (.214) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Guardians are 22-7 (.759) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
The Guardians are 13-6 (.684) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 48-5 (.906) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
White Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The White Sox are 27-5 (.844) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
The White Sox are just 6-35 (.146) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.
The White Sox are 41-34 (.547) on the road this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .473.
The White Sox are just 7-52 (.119) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .199.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters are slugging just .341 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Guardians hitters have just 725 strikeouts in 4,213 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .644 (1,413 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Guardians hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 28% over the last 14 days (14 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
White Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The White Sox are batting just .162 in lefty-lefty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .227.
White Sox hitters have 89 extra-base hits out of 302 total hits (just 29%) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
White Sox hitters have an OPS of .780 (2,805 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The White Sox are batting .266 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .198 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 34% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .224 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Guardians pitchers have walked 13 of 318 batters (4%) over the past seven days (8 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
White Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
White Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
White Sox pitchers have an ERA of 3.71 (1337.0 IP) on the road since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.30.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against White Sox pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
White Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
White Sox vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Crick (White Sox): Elbow, D60
- Jonathan Stiever (White Sox): Lat, D60
- Michael Kopech (White Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Johnny Cueto (White Sox): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Timothy Anderson (White Sox): Finger, D10
- Garrett Crochet (White Sox): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Mendick (White Sox): Knee, D60
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
- Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15
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