- The Guardians (82-67) are -145 favorites vs the White Sox (76-73)
- Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber (11-8), 2.82 ERA
- White Sox starting pitcher: Johnny Cueto (7-8), 3.09 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Cleveland Guardians (-145) visit Guaranteed Rate Field to take on the Chicago White Sox (+120) on Thursday, September 22, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Chicago.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Guardians vs White Sox Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Guardians are 82-66 against the spread (ATS), while the White Sox are 66-82 ATS.
Guardians vs. White Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +120 | O 7 +100 | -145 |
| White Sox | +1.5 -145 | U 7 -120 | +120 |
Guardians vs White Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and White Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 32 games (+12.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 31 away games (+11.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Triston McKenzie has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+11.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 37 of his last 67 games (+10.85 Units / 16% ROI)
Best White Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jose Abreu has hit the Singles Over in 72 of his last 106 games (+31.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Hits Over in 72 of his last 108 games (+21.30 Units / 10% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Over in 59 of his last 108 games (+16.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- Danny Mendick has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+15.60 Units / 142% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+15.20 Units / 89% ROI)
White Sox vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Andrew Vaughn | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Eloy Jimenez | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
White Sox vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| Andrew Vaughn | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Eloy Jimenez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
White Sox vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Andrew Vaughn | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Eloy Jimenez | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
White Sox vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Johnny Cueto | 2.5 -155 | 2.5 +110 |
| Shane Bieber | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 27 away games (+15.45 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 26 away games (+15.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 26 away games (+14.85 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 31 games (+5.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 away games (+5.30 Units / 25% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the White Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago White Sox have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 22 games at home (+4.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 25 games at home (+3.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+2.80 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+0.35 Units / 3% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 77-70 against the Run Line (+3.2 Units / 1.74% ROI).
- 82-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.55 Units / 8.98% ROI
- 66-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.95 Units / -8.58% ROI
- 73-66 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.15 Units / 0.09% ROI
White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 66-82 against the Run Line (-17.95 Units / -10.27% ROI).
- 75-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.8 Units / -8.72% ROI
- 67-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.6 Units / -5.92% ROI
- 71-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.2 Units / -1.34% ROI
Shane Bieber: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 59% of the time (423/717) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 68% of the time (939/1,374) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .185 (42-for-227) against Shane Bieber versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .245 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 35% (38/109) against Shane Bieber on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Johnny Cueto: White Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 13% (28/217) against Johnny Cueto with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 18% (106/595) against Johnny Cueto this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.
The average home run distance against Johnny Cueto against right-handed batters since the start of last season is 412.4 feet — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 399.1
The average home run distance against Johnny Cueto since the start of last season is 411.4 feet — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 399.1
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the White Sox
The Guardians are 15-55 (.214) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Guardians are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Guardians are 55-4 (.932) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Guardians are 13-6 (.684) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
White Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The White Sox are just 6-36 (.143) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The White Sox are 14-2 (.875) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The White Sox are 69-20 (.775) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The White Sox are 27-5 (.844) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters are slugging just .340 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Guardians hitters have just 1,018 strikeouts in 5,669 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Guardians hitters have put 40% of their swings in play this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
White Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
White Sox hitters have an OPS of just .443 (268 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .652.
White Sox hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
White Sox hitters have 89 extra-base hits out of 304 total hits (just 29%) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
The White Sox are batting .269 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 34% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 84 of 1,339 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .198 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Guardians pitchers have walked 13 of 317 batters (4%) over the past seven days (8 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
White Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
White Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against White Sox pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
White Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
White Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% in close and late situations since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
White Sox vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Crick (White Sox): Elbow, D60
- Jonathan Stiever (White Sox): Lat, D60
- Michael Kopech (White Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Johnny Cueto (White Sox): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Timothy Anderson (White Sox): Finger, D10
- Garrett Crochet (White Sox): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Mendick (White Sox): Knee, D60
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
- Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15
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