- The Yankees are -135 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill
- Yankees starting pitcher: Domingo Germán
- Watch the game on YES
The Cleveland Guardians (+110) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-135) on Monday, May 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.
The Yankees are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Guardians vs Yankees Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 13-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 13-16 ATS.
Guardians vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -185 | O 8.5 -115 | +110 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +150 | U 8.5 -105 | -135 |
Guardians vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 28 games (+11.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 26 games (+9.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+9.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+8.25 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.60 Units / 43% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.30 Units / 43% ROI)
- Franchy Cordero has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.15 Units / 74% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 43% ROI)
Yankees vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
Yankees vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Yankees vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Yankees vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Domingo German | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
| Cal Quantrill | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -135 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.40 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 away games (+0.85 Units / 4% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 18 games (+11.95 Units / 59% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+7.70 Units / 58% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+7.05 Units / 46% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 27 games (+4.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games at home (+3.40 Units / 14% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 11-17 against the Run Line (-5.7 Units / -16.99% ROI).
- 13-15 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.7 Units / -19.95% ROI
- 11-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.6 Units / -21.43% ROI
- 16-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.95 Units / 12.82% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 13-16 against the Run Line (-2.65 Units / -7.86% ROI).
- 15-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.5 Units / -6.25% ROI
- 10-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.9 Units / -30.99% ROI
- 18-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.95 Units / 21.72% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
18 of Cal Quantrill’s 64 breaking pitch strikeouts (28%) have been backdoor since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 13% (14/110) against Cal Quantrill this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has located his pitches away 59% of the time (955/1,626) vs left-handed batters since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 96th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 14% (129/888) against Cal Quantrill since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 0 Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Domingo German has thrown his curveball 38% of the time (33/86) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total CB; League Avg: 11% — 97th Percentile.
Hitters have chased 35 of Domingo German’s 65 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 54%) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters batting in the top of the order have hit just .083 against Domingo German this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .259 — 99th Percentile.
Domingo German has thrown his curveball 40% of the time (635/1,601) against right-handed batters since the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total CB; League Avg: 14% — 98th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Guardians are 20-67 (.230) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .120.
The Guardians are 14-70 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Guardians are 4-2 (.667) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .298.
The Guardians are 23-25 (.479) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .347.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Yankees are 21-34 (.382) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Yankees are 23-25 (.479) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .347.
The Yankees are 66-31 (.680) at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Yankees are 88-6 (.936) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .913.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 930 strikeouts in 5,293 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .344 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Guardians hitters have just 1,332 strikeouts in 7,237 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .646 (1,944 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees are batting just .179 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Yankees are batting just .213 with two outs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Yankees hitters have drawn 34 walks in 264 PA’s (13%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters are slugging just .320 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 13 of 255 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Guardians pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 82 of 1,081 batters (8%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 517 of 7,070 batters (7%) since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 43% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joshua Donaldson (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Thomas Kahnle (Yankees): Bicep, D60
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D15
- Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Shoulder, D10
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D15
- Aaron Judge (Yankees): Hip, Day-to-Day
- Carlos Rodón (Yankees): Forearm, D15
- Jakob Bauers (Yankees): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Harrison Bader (Yankees): Oblique, D10
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Sam D. Hentges (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Oblique, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
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