- The Guardians are -125 favorites vs the Yankees
- Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber
- Yankees starting pitcher: Clarke Schmidt
- Watch the game on Amazon Prime Video
The Cleveland Guardians (-125) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (+105) on Wednesday, May 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Guardians vs Yankees Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 14-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 14-17 ATS.
Guardians vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +135 | O 7.5 -105 | -125 |
| Yankees | +1.5 -160 | U 7.5 -115 | +105 |
Guardians vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 30 games (+13.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+8.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+8.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+7.90 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.15 Units / 35% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+9.85 Units / 35% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+8.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- Oswaldo Cabrera has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+7.45 Units / 27% ROI)
Yankees vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1400 | 0.5 |
Yankees vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -250 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
Yankees vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -500 |
Yankees vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | 4.5 -185 | 4.5 +140 |
| Clarke Schmidt | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 23 games (+10.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.80 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 away games (+0.90 Units / 4% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 20 games (+11.90 Units / 52% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 14 games at home (+9.70 Units / 62% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 14 games at home (+9.30 Units / 52% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 29 games (+4.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games at home (+2.60 Units / 10% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 12-18 against the Run Line (-6.25 Units / -16.94% ROI).
- 14-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.65 Units / -18.84% ROI
- 11-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.7 Units / -26.44% ROI
- 18-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.95 Units / 17.98% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 14-17 against the Run Line (-2.3 Units / -6.44% ROI).
- 16-15 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.75 Units / -6.43% ROI
- 10-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -12 Units / -35.24% ROI
- 20-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.95 Units / 26.09% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (22/35) against Shane Bieber in two-strike counts this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 94th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 63% of the time (118/188) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has allowed a slugging percentage of just .067 (1 Total Bases / 15 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .405 — 97th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 58% of the time (678/1,178) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Clarke Schmidt has allowed an OPS of .977 (154 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .669 — first Percentile.
Clarke Schmidt has allowed a slugging percentage of .585 (79 Total Bases / 135 ABs) vs left-handed batters since last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .361 — first Percentile.
Clarke Schmidt has allowed a slugging percentage of .609 (92 Total Bases / 151 ABs) vs left-handed batters since the 2021 season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .374 — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .338 (51-for-151) against Clarke Schmidt since the 2021 season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .230 — 0 Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Guardians are 21-67 (.239) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .121.
The Guardians are 15-71 (.174) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Guardians are 2-13 (.133) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .044.
The Guardians are 5-10 (.333) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .133.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Yankees are 21-34 (.382) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Yankees are 67-32 (.677) at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Yankees are just 0-13 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Yankees are just 0-14 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .044.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters are slugging just .344 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Guardians hitters have just 947 strikeouts in 5,360 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .646 (1,951 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters are slugging just .320 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .412.
Yankees hitters have an OBP of just .248 (141 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Yankees hitters have chased 40% of pitches out of the zone in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Yankees are batting just .188 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Guardians pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 13 of 272 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 519 of 7,135 batters (7%) since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 43% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joshua Donaldson (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Thomas Kahnle (Yankees): Bicep, D60
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D15
- Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Shoulder, D10
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D15
- Aaron Judge (Yankees): Hip, D10
- Carlos Rodón (Yankees): Forearm, D15
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Sam D. Hentges (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Oblique, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
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