Guardians vs Yankees Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 11

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 11, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Yankees (0-0) are -200 favorites vs the Guardians (2-0)
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill (-), ERA
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole (-), ERA
  • Watch the game on TBS

The Cleveland Guardians (+170) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-200) on Tuesday, October 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:37pm EDT in Bronx.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Guardians vs Yankees Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Guardians are 94-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 72-90 ATS.

Guardians vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians+1.5 -130O 6.5 +105+170
Yankees -1.5 +105U 6.5 -125-200

Guardians vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 24 of his last 35 away games (+14.05 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Singles Over in 37 of his last 58 games (+12.10 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Austin Hedges has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.65 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Austin Hedges has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.60 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+11.25 Units / 70% ROI)

Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Runs Under in 47 of his last 66 games at home (+16.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Anthony Rizzo has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+11.80 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+11.30 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Oswaldo Cabrera has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.95 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Oswaldo Cabrera has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.80 Units / 23% ROI)

Yankees vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Gleyber Torres 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 0.5 +1300 0.5

Yankees vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 0.5 -300 0.5 +195
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Gleyber Torres 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 0.5 -200 0.5 +140

Yankees vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 0.5 +125 0.5 -185
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Gleyber Torres 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 0.5 +300 0.5 -500

Yankees vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Gerrit Cole 6.5 +115 6.5 -160
Cal Quantrill 3.5 -135 3.5 -105
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 87 of their last 145 games (+26.75 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 38 away games (+16.15 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 30 away games (+14.60 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 58 away games (+12.85 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 58 games (+7.50 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 75 games at home (+16.10 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+9.05 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games (+8.15 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+7.65 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.10 Units / 31% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 86-78 against the Run Line (+5.85 Units / 2.88% ROI).

  • 94-70 when betting on the Moneyline for +21.8 Units / 10.46% ROI
  • 75-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.65 Units / -7.02% ROI
  • 80-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.6 Units / -1.44% ROI

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 72-90 against the Run Line (-20.25 Units / -10.72% ROI).

  • 99-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.6 Units / -0.21% ROI
  • 76-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.75 Units / -7.18% ROI
  • 81-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.05 Units / -1.7% ROI

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 15% (115/778) against Cal Quantrill this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (262/1,420) against Cal Quantrill this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — sixth Percentile.

30 of Cal Quantrill’s 101 breaking pitch strikeouts (30%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 96th Percentile.

Cal Quantrill has thrown his slider 37% of the time (522/1,403) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.

Gerrit Cole: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

51% of Gerrit Cole’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.

Gerrit Cole has allowed an OPS of 1.300 (117 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .999 — fourth Percentile.

Gerrit Cole has struck out 36% (129/355) of left-handed batters he faced this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Gerrit Cole has located his pitches away 61% of the time (1,243/2,050) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Guardians are 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Guardians are 12-60 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Guardians are 66-3 (.957) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Guardians are 47-35 (.573) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .532.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Yankees are 10-49 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Yankees are 57-24 (.704) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .532.

The Yankees are 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Yankees are 42-39 (.519) on the road this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .468.

Guardians hitters have just 1,148 strikeouts in 6,244 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have 94 extra-base hits out of 349 total hits (just 27%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Guardians hitters have just 808 strikeouts in 4,625 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .342 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Yankees hitters have an OBP of .334 (3,449 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Yankees hitters have an OPS of .768 (1,549 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

Guardians pitchers have walked 31 of 564 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (15 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 441 of 6,073 batters (7%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 90 of 1,484 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 392.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3

Yankees pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Yankees vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shin, D15
  • Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, D10
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.