Guardians vs Yankees Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 13, ALDS

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 13, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Yankees are -140 favorites vs the Guardians
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber, 1.17 ERA
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Nestor Cortes, ERA
  • Watch the game on TBS

The Cleveland Guardians (+115) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-140) on Thursday, October 13, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:37pm EDT in Bronx for this postseason game.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).

The Guardians vs Yankees Over/Under is 6 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Guardians are 94-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 73-90 ATS.

Guardians vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians+1.5 -200O 6 +100+115
Yankees -1.5 +165U 6 -120-140

Guardians vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Thursday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Yankees vs Guardians and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 36 away games (+15.60 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Austin Hedges has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.65 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Austin Hedges has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.60 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Austin Hedges has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.00 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Myles Straw has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.05 Units / 38% ROI)

Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Runs Under in 47 of his last 66 games at home (+16.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+11.30 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Aaron Hicks has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+9.60 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Anthony Rizzo has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+8.90 Units / 21% ROI)

Yankees vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 +375 0.5 -650
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 +375 0.5 -650
Gleyber Torres 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Harrison Bader 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000

Yankees vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Gleyber Torres 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Harrison Bader 0.5 -135 0.5 -105

Yankees vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 0.5 +120 0.5 -175
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Gleyber Torres 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Harrison Bader 0.5 +280 0.5 -450

Yankees vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Nestor Cortes 3.5 -160 3.5 +115
Shane Bieber 4.5 -150 4.5 +105
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 87 of their last 146 games (+25.75 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 39 away games (+15.15 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 31 away games (+13.60 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 59 away games (+11.55 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 59 games (+8.55 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 76 games at home (+17.10 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+8.65 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 38 games at home (+7.80 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+7.10 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 28 games (+7.10 Units / 23% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 86-79 against the Run Line (+4.55 Units / 2.23% ROI).

  • 94-71 when betting on the Moneyline for +20.8 Units / 9.93% ROI
  • 75-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.9 Units / -7.66% ROI
  • 81-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.55 Units / -0.85% ROI

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 73-90 against the Run Line (-19.15 Units / -10.09% ROI).

  • 100-63 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.4 Units / 0.14% ROI
  • 76-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -14 Units / -7.83% ROI
  • 82-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -2 Units / -1.11% ROI

Left-handed batters are hitting .387 (12-for-31) against Shane Bieber — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .236 — sixth Percentile.

Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 57% of the time (560/990) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (89/266) against Shane Bieber on fastballs since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.

Shane Bieber has allowed a slugging percentage of just .155 (41 Total Bases / 265 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .304 — 100th Percentile.

Nestor Cortes: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 54% of the time (538/990) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total SL; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.

19 of Nestor Cortes’ 58 breaking pitch strikeouts (33%) have been backdoor this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 98th Percentile.

Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 55% of the time (903/1,658) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total SL; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 61% of the time (273/447) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Guardians are 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Guardians are 12-60 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Guardians are 14-10 (.583) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Guardians are 47-35 (.573) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .532.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Yankees are 10-49 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Yankees are 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Yankees are 28-4 (.875) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

The Yankees are 57-24 (.704) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .532.

Guardians hitters have just 808 strikeouts in 4,625 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have just 1,141 strikeouts in 6,213 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Guardians are batting .293 on changeups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.

Yankees hitters have drawn 162 walks in 1,549 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.230 (1,113 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.064.

Yankees hitters have drawn 351 walks in 3,449 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Yankees hitters have drawn 890 walks in 8,783 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 440 of 6,043 batters (7%) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 90 of 1,475 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Guardians pitchers have won 36% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Yankees pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 392.1 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 47% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Yankees vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shin, D15
  • Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, D10
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Yankees vs Guardians and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.