- The – are favorites vs the –
- Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber, 1.17 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Nestor Cortes, – ERA
- Watch the game on TBS
The Cleveland Guardians () visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees () on Friday, October 14, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:07pm EDT in Bronx for this postseason game.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Guardians vs Yankees Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Guardians are 94-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 73-90 ATS.
Guardians vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | O | ||
| Yankees | U |
Guardians vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Friday‘s matchup with 54.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 36 away games (+15.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- Austin Hedges has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.65 Units / 54% ROI)
- Austin Hedges has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.60 Units / 52% ROI)
- Austin Hedges has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.05 Units / 38% ROI)
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Runs Under in 47 of his last 66 games at home (+16.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+11.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+9.60 Units / 80% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+8.90 Units / 21% ROI)
Yankees vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Harrison Bader | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
Yankees vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Harrison Bader | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -120 |
Yankees vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Harrison Bader | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
Yankees vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nestor Cortes | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +110 |
| Shane Bieber | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -135 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 87 of their last 146 games (+25.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 39 away games (+15.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 31 away games (+13.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 59 away games (+11.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 59 games (+8.55 Units / 13% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 76 games at home (+17.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+8.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 38 games at home (+7.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+7.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 28 games (+7.10 Units / 23% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 86-79 against the Run Line (+4.55 Units / 2.23% ROI).
- 94-71 when betting on the Moneyline for +20.8 Units / 9.93% ROI
- 75-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.9 Units / -7.66% ROI
- 81-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.55 Units / -0.85% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 73-90 against the Run Line (-19.15 Units / -10.09% ROI).
- 100-63 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.4 Units / 0.14% ROI
- 76-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -14 Units / -7.83% ROI
- 82-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -2 Units / -1.11% ROI
Shane Bieber: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 69% of the time (1,053/1,534) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 57% of the time (560/990) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 37% (138/375) against Shane Bieber with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.
Shane Bieber’s K:BB ratio is 14.0 (14/1) — 3rd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 3.4 — 97th Percentile.
Nestor Cortes: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
30 of Nestor Cortes’ 87 breaking pitch strikeouts (34%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 98th Percentile.
Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 61% of the time (273/447) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .118 (13-for-110) against Nestor Cortes on low fastballs since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .272 — 100th Percentile.
Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 58% of the time (358/616) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total SL; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Guardians are 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Guardians are 12-60 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Guardians are 63-3 (.955) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Guardians are 46-35 (.568) on the road this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Yankees are 10-49 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Yankees are 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Yankees are 57-24 (.704) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Yankees are 43-13 (.768) when scoring in the first inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 808 strikeouts in 4,625 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,141 strikeouts in 6,213 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .342 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters are slugging .469 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .347.
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.176 (2,320 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 440 of 6,043 batters (7%) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 90 of 1,475 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.44 (1471.0 IP) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 392.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 47% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shin, D15
- Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, D10
- Zachary Britton (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
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