Guardians vs Yankees Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 17, ALDS

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 17, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Yankees are -160 favorites vs the Guardians
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Aaron Civale, ERA
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon, 0.00 ERA
  • Watch the game on TBS

The Cleveland Guardians (+135) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-160) on Monday, October 17, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Bronx for this postseason game.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Guardians vs Yankees Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Guardians are 96-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 74-92 ATS.

Guardians vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians+1.5 -160O 7 +105+135
Yankees -1.5 +135U 7 -125-160

Guardians vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Monday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 37 away games (+14.60 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Singles Over in 40 of his last 62 games (+13.75 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Austin Hedges has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.90 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Austin Hedges has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.85 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Austin Hedges has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+11.55 Units / 26% ROI)

Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Runs Under in 47 of his last 66 games at home (+16.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+11.30 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Anthony Rizzo has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+9.90 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Under in his last 7 games at home (+9.75 Units / 81% ROI)

Yankees vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Gleyber Torres 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Harrison Bader 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500

Yankees vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Gleyber Torres 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Harrison Bader 0.5 -160 0.5 +110

Yankees vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 0.5 +120 0.5 -175
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Gleyber Torres 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Harrison Bader 0.5 +260 0.5 -450

Yankees vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jameson Taillon 3.5 +125 3.5 -175
Aaron Civale 3.5 -125 3.5 -115
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 89 of their last 149 games (+27.10 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 40 away games (+16.15 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 32 away games (+12.60 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 60 away games (+12.55 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 62 games (+8.45 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 77 games at home (+15.55 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 21 of their last 31 games (+10.15 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 27 games (+9.10 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 39 games at home (+7.80 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+5.60 Units / 24% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 88-80 against the Run Line (+5.25 Units / 2.51% ROI).

  • 96-72 when betting on the Moneyline for +22.15 Units / 10.43% ROI
  • 76-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.1 Units / -7.62% ROI
  • 82-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.65 Units / -0.89% ROI

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 74-92 against the Run Line (-20.05 Units / -10.4% ROI).

  • 101-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.35 Units / -0.46% ROI
  • 77-83 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.2 Units / -7.79% ROI
  • 83-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.1 Units / -1.14% ROI

Aaron Civale has 5 three-pitch strikeouts this month (1 games) — 2nd most among pitchers in MLB — 99th Percentile.

Aaron Civale’s K:BB ratio is 21.0 (21/1) — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 3.4 — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Civale has allowed a slugging percentage of .592 (74 Total Bases / 125 ABs) on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .376 — first Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 57% (12/21) against Aaron Civale — tied for 6th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 92nd Percentile.

Jameson Taillon: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jameson Taillon has walked 32 of 731 batters (4%) this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 93rd Percentile.

Jameson Taillon has walked 10 of 409 right-handed batters (2%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 99th Percentile.

Jameson Taillon has walked 24 of 749 right-handed batters (3%) since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.

71% of Jameson Taillon’s called strikeouts are outside this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — 97th Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Guardians are 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Guardians are 12-60 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Guardians are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Guardians are 19-2 (.905) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Yankees are 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Yankees are 10-49 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Yankees are 57-13 (.814) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Yankees are 43-13 (.768) when scoring in the first inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .342 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Guardians hitters have 94 extra-base hits out of 349 total hits (just 27%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians hitters have just 1,159 strikeouts in 6,298 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Yankees hitters have drawn 163 walks in 1,556 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Yankees hitters have an OBP of .333 (3,456 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Yankees hitters have drawn 271 walks in 2,897 PA’s (9%) when leading off an inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 90 of 1,494 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 449 of 6,120 batters (7%) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.44 (1490.0 IP) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 392.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3

Yankees pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Yankees have won 41% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Yankees vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shin, D15
  • Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, D10
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.