It’s time for the main event of MLB’s All-Star break. This year’s Home Run Derby features multiple powerful hitters, including Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Junior Caminero, who finished runner-up at last summer’s derby.
I’ve already made the case for backing Caminero to finish the job in the latest MLB Home Run Derby odds, but BetMGM offers a variety of different ways to bet on this year’s event. There are odds to reach each round, longest home runs, total home runs, highest exit velocity, and exact outcomes.
As a result, I’ve put together a few of my best bets for the 2026 Home Run Derby:
MLB Home Run Derby Best Bets
| Player | Market | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero | To Reach Semifinals | -160 |
| Junior Caminero | To Reach Finals | +200 |
| Jac Caglianone | To Reach Semifinals | -110 |
Junior Caminero Aims for Another Deep Run
In addition to backing Caminero at +425 to win the 2026 Home Run Derby, I’ve opted to ladder him in other markets because he has the best chance of making a deep run. I like his odds of reaching the semifinals (-160) and the finals (+200).
Caminero is the only participant who performed in last year’s derby, losing to Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh in the finals. However, he’s arguably in better form entering this year’s event in Philadelphia.
According to Baseball Savant, Caminero’s average bat speed of 79.9 miles per hour ranks in the 100th percentile. His max exit velocity this year is 116.9 miles per hour. Both marks are higher than those of any other participant in this year’s event.
That’s the exact type of profile worth targeting in a derby format, which is why Caminero made the finals in his debut last summer. If he finishes the job this time around, Caminero (23 years, eight days) will be the youngest winner in MLB history.
Back Jac Caglianone in Derby Debut
Given I’m backing Caminero, it shouldn’t be surprising that the same metrics have led me to believe Kansas City Royals slugger Jac Caglianone will do well as a debutant.
Caglianone has 15 home runs this year, but his Baseball Savant card looks a lot like Caminero’s page. Caglianone ranks in the 97th percentile with a bat speed of 77.3 miles per hour, and his max exit velocity is 116.1 miles per hour. His hard-hit rate ranks in the 98th percentile.
In addition, Citizens Bank Park has historically been better for left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters. Per Baseball Savant, the ballpark has an MLB-best Park Factor for lefties’ home runs.
There are concerns about Caglianone’s dad pitching for him in this event, but Jeff Caglianone has experience with pitching to his son and former multi-time derby champion Pete Alonso. So I’m not as worried about the father-son duo.
I’d be willing to back Caglianone to win the event at his current odds, but I’d rather take him to advance past Round 1 instead.
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