Home Run Derby Odds and Picks

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Philadelphia Phillies' Kyle Schwarber follows through after hitting a home run against Washington Nationals pitcher Josiah Gray during the fourth inning of a baseball game, Wednesday, July 6, 2022, in Philadelphia.
(AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
Rachael Millanta @rachaelmillanta Jul 18, 2022, 9:03 AM
  • Pete Alonso (+155) has the best odds to win.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. (+200) has the best odds for longest home run.

The 2022 Home Run Derby is scheduled for Monday at 8:00 pm ET, kicking off the first Mid-Summer Classic hosted by Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles since the first ever Derby in 1985. 

A chance to take a break from World Series odds for a brief moment, Home Run Derby betting is now live with the eight participants confirmed last week — so who will take home the title this year?

Let’s look at the MLB betting odds (as of Monday morning) and my picks for the event.

Home Run Derby Odds to Win

PLAYERTEAMLEAGUEODDS TO WIN
Pete AlonsoNew York MetsNational League+155
Kyle SchwarberPhiladelphia PhilliesNational League+325
Juan SotoWashington NationalsNational League+600
Ronald Acuña Jr.Atlanta Braves National League+700
Julio RodríguezSeattle MarinersAmerican League+900
Corey SeagerTexas RangersAmerican League+1000
José RamírezCleveland GuardiansAmerican League+1600
Albert PujolsSt. Louis CardinalsNational League+2200

Pete Alonso (+155) has won the last two Home Run Derbies, and should he win again this year, he will become the first slugger to win the event three times in a row. His experience and success prove why he’s the favorite to win, but that’s not where I’m putting my money. 

Kyle Schwarber (+325) has hit the most homers this season of all the Derby participants, having already gone deep an impressive 29 times. To progress to the finals, the Phillies outfielder must beat Albert Pujols in the first round and either Juan Soto or José Ramírez in the second round. This feels doable, while Alonso will meet Acuña Jr. in the first round, which is far more dangerous.

This is only Schwarber’s second Home Run Derby, but his consistency in his last appearance in 2018 proved that he understands the assignment. I’m picking Kyle Schwarber as the outright winner for +325.

Home Run Derby Finalists Odds

FINALISTSODDS TO WIN
Pete Alonso vs. Kyle Schwarber+300
Pete Alonso vs. Juan Soto+450
Ronald Acuña Jr. vs. Kyle Schwarber+900
Julio Rodríguez vs. Kyle Schwarber+900
Pete Alonso vs. José Ramírez+1000
Pete Alonso vs. Albert Pujols+1200
Ronald Acuña Jr. vs. Juan Soto+1200
Corey Seager vs. Kyle Schwarber+1200
Julio Rodríguez vs. Juan Soto+1200
Corey Seager vs. Juan Soto+1600
Ronald Acuña Jr. vs. José Ramírez+2500
Julio Rodríguez vs. José Ramírez+2500
Ronald Acuña Jr. vs. Albert Pujols+3500
Corey Seager vs. José Ramírez+3500
Julio Rodríguez vs. Albert Pujols+3500
Corey Seager vs. Albert Pujols+4000

In the first round, I think Schwarber will beat Pujols, Soto will beat Ramírez, Seager will beat Rodríguez, and Alonso will beat Acuña Jr. (though I think that last one will be one of the most interesting matchups of the day — it is definitely the one I am least sure of). From there, I predict that Schwarber will beat Soto and Alonso will beat Seager.

That means my pick for the final is the day’s favorite — Alonso vs. Schwarber. These two sluggers are both serious contenders, with Alonso fighting hard for his third title and Schwarber coming in with nothing but power behind his bat. 

Alonso vs. Schwarber (+300) is my pick for the final.

Longest Home Run Odds

PLAYERTEAMODDS TO WIN
Ronald Acuña Jr.Atlanta Braves+200
Kyle SchwarberPhiladelphia Phillies+350
Juan SotoWashington Nationals +400
Pete AlonsoNew York Mets+650
Julio RodríguezSeattle Mariners+800
Corey SeagerTexas Rangers+900
Albert PujolsSt. Louis Cardinals+1200
José RamírezCleveland Guardians+1400

Even though I think he will be eliminated in the first round by Pete Alonso, my pick is that Ronald Acuña Jr. will smash the longest home run. So far this season, Acuña Jr. has only hit eight home runs (which pales in comparison to Schwarber’s 28 but is still quite impressive), but his longest one flew an incredible 464 feet. The participant with the closest distance to him is Juan Soto, who went yard to 451 feet, but that’s still a decent lead to Acuña Jr.

He’s the favorite for this bet, and at +200, I think Acuña Jr. has the longest home run in the bag.

MLB Live Betting at BetMGM

Live sports betting is available during each MLB game this season. From first pitch through the final out, you can view updated run lines, over/under totals, and more live sports betting opportunities at the best online sportsbook.

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About the Author

Rachael Millanta

Read More @rachaelmillanta

Rachael Millanta is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM focusing on Major League Baseball. Her work has been published in SB Nation, McSweeney’s Internet Tendency and Slackjaw Humor. Originally from Sydney, Australia, Rachael now resides in Chicago, Illinois.

Rachael Millanta is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM focusing on Major League Baseball. Her work has been published in SB Nation, McSweeney’s Internet Tendency and Slackjaw Humor. Originally from Sydney, Australia, Rachael now resides in Chicago, Illinois.