- Pete Alonso (+155) has the best odds to win.
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (+200) has the best odds for longest home run.
The 2022 Home Run Derby is scheduled for Monday at 8:00 pm ET, kicking off the first Mid-Summer Classic hosted by Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles since the first ever Derby in 1985.
A chance to take a break from World Series odds for a brief moment, Home Run Derby betting is now live with the eight participants confirmed last week — so who will take home the title this year?
Let’s look at the MLB betting odds (as of Monday morning) and my picks for the event.
THE HOME RUN DERBY BRACKET IS HERE 🤩
Who's your pick to win? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/IpqpZ6WpCs
— ESPN (@espn) July 14, 2022
Home Run Derby Odds to Win
| PLAYER | TEAM | LEAGUE | ODDS TO WIN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso | New York Mets | National League | +155 |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | National League | +325 |
| Juan Soto | Washington Nationals | National League | +600 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | Atlanta Braves | National League | +700 |
| Julio Rodríguez | Seattle Mariners | American League | +900 |
| Corey Seager | Texas Rangers | American League | +1000 |
| José Ramírez | Cleveland Guardians | American League | +1600 |
| Albert Pujols | St. Louis Cardinals | National League | +2200 |
Pete Alonso (+155) has won the last two Home Run Derbies, and should he win again this year, he will become the first slugger to win the event three times in a row. His experience and success prove why he’s the favorite to win, but that’s not where I’m putting my money.
Kyle Schwarber (+325) has hit the most homers this season of all the Derby participants, having already gone deep an impressive 29 times. To progress to the finals, the Phillies outfielder must beat Albert Pujols in the first round and either Juan Soto or José Ramírez in the second round. This feels doable, while Alonso will meet Acuña Jr. in the first round, which is far more dangerous.
This is only Schwarber’s second Home Run Derby, but his consistency in his last appearance in 2018 proved that he understands the assignment. I’m picking Kyle Schwarber as the outright winner for +325.
29 and feelin' fine 😎 pic.twitter.com/KRk2A6GQlR
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) July 16, 2022
Home Run Derby Finalists Odds
| FINALISTS | ODDS TO WIN |
|---|---|
| Pete Alonso vs. Kyle Schwarber | +300 |
| Pete Alonso vs. Juan Soto | +450 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. vs. Kyle Schwarber | +900 |
| Julio Rodríguez vs. Kyle Schwarber | +900 |
| Pete Alonso vs. José Ramírez | +1000 |
| Pete Alonso vs. Albert Pujols | +1200 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. vs. Juan Soto | +1200 |
| Corey Seager vs. Kyle Schwarber | +1200 |
| Julio Rodríguez vs. Juan Soto | +1200 |
| Corey Seager vs. Juan Soto | +1600 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. vs. José Ramírez | +2500 |
| Julio Rodríguez vs. José Ramírez | +2500 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. vs. Albert Pujols | +3500 |
| Corey Seager vs. José Ramírez | +3500 |
| Julio Rodríguez vs. Albert Pujols | +3500 |
| Corey Seager vs. Albert Pujols | +4000 |
In the first round, I think Schwarber will beat Pujols, Soto will beat Ramírez, Seager will beat Rodríguez, and Alonso will beat Acuña Jr. (though I think that last one will be one of the most interesting matchups of the day — it is definitely the one I am least sure of). From there, I predict that Schwarber will beat Soto and Alonso will beat Seager.
That means my pick for the final is the day’s favorite — Alonso vs. Schwarber. These two sluggers are both serious contenders, with Alonso fighting hard for his third title and Schwarber coming in with nothing but power behind his bat.
Alonso vs. Schwarber (+300) is my pick for the final.
Rocking the mustache for Keith Hernandez's jersey retirement, Pete Alonso goes DEEP. pic.twitter.com/pn6WsF8r1h
— MLB (@MLB) July 9, 2022
Longest Home Run Odds
| PLAYER | TEAM | ODDS TO WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | Atlanta Braves | +200 |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | +350 |
| Juan Soto | Washington Nationals | +400 |
| Pete Alonso | New York Mets | +650 |
| Julio Rodríguez | Seattle Mariners | +800 |
| Corey Seager | Texas Rangers | +900 |
| Albert Pujols | St. Louis Cardinals | +1200 |
| José Ramírez | Cleveland Guardians | +1400 |
Even though I think he will be eliminated in the first round by Pete Alonso, my pick is that Ronald Acuña Jr. will smash the longest home run. So far this season, Acuña Jr. has only hit eight home runs (which pales in comparison to Schwarber’s 28 but is still quite impressive), but his longest one flew an incredible 464 feet. The participant with the closest distance to him is Juan Soto, who went yard to 451 feet, but that’s still a decent lead to Acuña Jr.
He’s the favorite for this bet, and at +200, I think Acuña Jr. has the longest home run in the bag.
MLB Live Betting at BetMGM
Live sports betting is available during each MLB game this season. From first pitch through the final out, you can view updated run lines, over/under totals, and more live sports betting opportunities at the best online sportsbook.
