- Rays third baseman Junior Caminero is my pick to win the 2026 Home Run Derby.
The Home Run Derby will take center stage during MLB’s All-Star break at 8 p.m. ET on Monday at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The event will be streamed on Netflix.
Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber begins as the betting favorite to win the derby in his home ballpark. That’s notable because Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh won last year’s derby as the betting favorite.
Check out the latest MLB odds for all eight participants and a prediction for the 2026 Home Run Derby:
MLB Home Run Derby Odds 2026
| Player | Team | Odds | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | Phillies | +260 | +340 |
| Junior Caminero | Rays | +340 | +425 |
| Munetaka Murakami | White Sox | +650 | +475 |
| Jac Caglianone | Royals | +750 | +650 |
| Jordan Walker | Cardinals | +750 | +650 |
| Bryce Harper | Phillies | +800 | +850 |
| Ben Rice | Yankees | +1000 | +900 |
| Willson Contreras | Red Sox | +1700 | +1100 |
Who Will Win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?
I predict that Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Junior Caminero will win the 2026 Home Run Derby in Philadelphia on Monday. Caminero might have the second-best odds at +425, but there is an argument that he should be the favorite.
Caminero came close to winning the derby last year when I backed him at +1000 odds. He lost to Raleigh in the finals. But I believe Caminero is back this summer to finish the job, especially since he’s the only participant returning for the second straight year.
He also brings back Rays field coordinator Tomas Francisco as his pitcher. In addition to being Caminero’s pitcher for last year’s derby, Francisco also threw to Randy Arozarena during his runner-up finish in 2023. So, Caminero has an experienced pitcher in this event.
More importantly, Caminero has leveled up his game on the diamond. He’s emerged as a legitimate MVP contender, posting a 3.7 bWAR with 28 home runs and 59 RBIs.
Caminero has an ideal profile in this event, ranking in the 100th percentile with an average bat speed of 79.9 mph this year (per Baseball Savant). He’s also in the 95th percentile in exit velocity and the 93rd percentile in hard-hit rate.
If Caminero claims the crown at this year’s event, he will become the youngest derby champion in MLB history. Juan Gonzalez has held the record since 1993, winning the event at 23 years and 265 days.
Caminero (23 years, eight days) and Kansas City Royals slugger Jac Caglianone (23 years, 154 days) are the youngest participants in this year’s event. And those are the two players I’d prefer to target at their current odds.
Prediction: Junior Caminero
MLB Home Run Derby Time & TV Info
- Date: Monday, July 13
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Stream:Â Netflix
Who is Pitching to 2026 Home Run Derby Players?
| Batter | Pitcher | Title |
|---|---|---|
| Jac Caglianone | Jeff Caglianone | Dad |
| Junior Caminero | Tomas Francisco | Rays field coordinator |
| Willson Contreras | José David Flores | Red Sox bench coach |
| Bryce Harper | Dino Ebel | Dodgers 3B coach |
| Munetaka Murakami | Luis Sierra | White Sox coach |
| Ben Rice | Dan Rice | Dad |
| Kyle Schwarber | Rafael Pena | Phillies assistant hitting coach |
| Jordan Walker | Kleininger Teran | Cardinals bullpen catcher |
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