- The Astros are -155 favorites vs the Mariners
- Mariners starting pitcher: Bryce Miller
- Astros starting pitcher: Jonathan France
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Seattle Mariners (+125) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-155) on Friday, August 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Mariners vs Astros Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 66-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 62-60 ATS.
Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -160 | O 8.5 -110 | +125 |
| Astros | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -110 | -155 |
Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 67.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+12.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 36 games (+11.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 35 games (+11.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 33 games (+9.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 26 games (+9.70 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.55 Units / 47% ROI)
- Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 47 games (+10.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 23 games at home (+9.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 44 games (+9.60 Units / 22% ROI)
Astros vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Cade Marlowe | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
Astros vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Cade Marlowe | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
Astros vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
| Cade Marlowe | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
Astros vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Miller | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -160 |
| J.P. France | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 41 games (+12.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 39 games (+10.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 42 games (+6.04 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 away games (+5.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.50 Units / 26% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 87 games (+10.85 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 37 games at home (+5.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 59 games at home (+5.45 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 49 games (+5.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 37 games at home (+5.10 Units / 11% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 60-61 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -1.16% ROI).
- 66-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.35 Units / -2.55% ROI
- 60-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.95 Units / -2.94% ROI
- 58-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.5 Units / -5.67% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 62-60 against the Run Line (-0.8 Units / -0.52% ROI).
- 70-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.35 Units / 0.75% ROI
- 60-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.8 Units / -4.26% ROI
- 59-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.05 Units / -4.57% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of 40% (149/369) against Bryce Miller on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Bryce Miller has a strike rate of 71% (310/435) in two strike counts this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Bryce Miller has thrown fastballs 70% of the time (515/732) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 99th Percentile.
Bryce Miller has an average spin rate of 2591.8 RPM on fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: 2242.2 — 99th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (7/58) against J.P. France with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
J.P. France has not allowed a home run in any of the last 36.0 innings he’s appeared — Sean Manaea has the longest active streak at 54.0.
J.P. France has pitched 7 or more innings in each of his last four games — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 17% (84/504) against J.P. France in non-two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 74-10 (.881) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Mariners are 118-5 (.959) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Mariners are 49-8 (.860) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .782.
The Mariners are 19-1 (.950) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are 35-18 (.660) after a road loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .452.
The Astros are 72-36 (.667) after a loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Astros are 14-11 (.560) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Astros are 37-18 (.673) after a home loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .518.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .120 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Mariners hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .166 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Mariners hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 942 strikeouts in 5,255 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 562 strikeouts in 3,174 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have an OPS of .983 (313 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .687.
The Astros are batting .265 against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 310 of 4,482 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a swing rate of 50% against the Mariners pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 761 of 10,512 batters (7%) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 69% of opposing batters this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have won 40% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 34% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- José Abreu (Astros): Back, D10
- Phillip Maton (Astros): Elbow, D15
- John Crawford (Mariners): Concussion, D7
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Bryan Woo (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Thumb, D10
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Jarred Kelenic (Mariners): Foot, D10
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