- The Astros are -150 favorites vs the Mariners
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Seattle Mariners (+125) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-150) on Saturday, August 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Mariners vs Astros Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 67-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 62-61 ATS.
Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -165 | O 7.5 -105 | +125 |
| Astros | -1.5 +140 | U 7.5 -115 | -150 |
Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 67.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+14.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 37 games (+12.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 36 games (+12.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 34 games (+10.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 27 games (+10.85 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 24 games (+10.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.30 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 47 games (+10.25 Units / 10% ROI)
Astros vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| Cade Marlowe | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Dylan Moore | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Yainer Diaz | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
Astros vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Cade Marlowe | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Dylan Moore | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Yainer Diaz | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
Astros vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Cade Marlowe | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Dylan Moore | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Yainer Diaz | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
Astros vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -120 |
| Logan Gilbert | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -165 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 42 games (+13.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 40 games (+11.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 away games (+6.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 21 away games (+6.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 43 games (+4.79 Units / 10% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 88 games (+9.40 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 60 games at home (+6.45 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+4.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 100 games (+4.35 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 50 games (+4.25 Units / 7% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 61-61 against the Run Line (-0.8 Units / -0.51% ROI).
- 67-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.1 Units / -1.81% ROI
- 60-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -5 Units / -3.69% ROI
- 59-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.5 Units / -4.87% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 62-61 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -1.16% ROI).
- 70-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.1 Units / -0.05% ROI
- 60-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.85 Units / -4.99% ROI
- 60-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.05 Units / -3.78% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .256 against Logan Gilbert on the first pitch of at-bats this season — fourth best among qualified SPs– 94th Percentile. Opponents batted .476 (39-for-82) against him on the first pitch of at-bats last season — worst among qualified SPs– second Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .190 (158 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted .476 (39-for-82) against Logan Gilbert on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .338 — second Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .179 (312 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — 98th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (935/2,206) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 49% of the time (280/572) with two-strikes this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (185/296) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 113 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (872/1,895) with two-strikes since the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 19-1 (.950) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Mariners are 119-5 (.960) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Mariners are 10-6 (.625) after a win as underdogs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .438.
The Mariners are 33-10 (.767) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .690.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are 14-11 (.560) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Astros are 120-13 (.902) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Astros are 13-29 (.310) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .218.
The Astros are 35-18 (.660) after a road loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .120 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Mariners hitters have 917 strikeouts in 3,538 PA’s (26%) against RHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .166 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Mariners hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 562 strikeouts in 3,174 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 942 strikeouts in 5,255 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 241 strikeouts in 1,324 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters are slugging .456 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 311 of 4,513 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 762 of 10,543 batters (7%) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% over the past seven days (7 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have won 40% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 34% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.14 (1279.0 IP) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Tucker (Astros): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- José Abreu (Astros): Back, D10
- Phillip Maton (Astros): Elbow, D15
- John Crawford (Mariners): Concussion, D7
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Bryan Woo (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Thumb, D10
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Jarred Kelenic (Mariners): Foot, D10
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