- The Astros (64-35) are -145 favorites vs the Mariners (54-45)
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert (10-4), 2.76 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: José Urquidy (9-4), 3.93 ERA
- Watch the game on Fox Sports 1
The Seattle Mariners (+120) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-145) on Thursday, July 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Mariners vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mariners are 54-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 51-48 ATS.
Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -165 | O 8 +100 | +120 |
| Astros | -1.5 +135 | U 8 -120 | -145 |
Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s matchup with 58.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 33 away games (+19.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.70 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 46 away games (+11.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 45 games (+10.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.30 Units / 31% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+10.15 Units / 59% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.95 Units / 70% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 22 games at home (+9.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.10 Units / 48% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.10 Units / 41% ROI)
Astros vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
Astros vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Astros vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
Astros vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Urquidy | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +100 |
| Logan Gilbert | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -160 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 31 games (+19.35 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games (+12.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 19 away games (+11.90 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 55 games (+7.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 18 away games (+7.85 Units / 38% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 56 of their last 86 games (+20.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 97 games (+19.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 83 games (+12.75 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 17 of their last 22 games at home (+12.70 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 80 games (+8.60 Units / 9% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 50-49 against the Run Line (-6 Units / -4.54% ROI).
- 54-45 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.15 Units / 7.71% ROI
- 46-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.25 Units / -8.55% ROI
- 51-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.25 Units / 0.23% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 51-48 against the Run Line (+4.25 Units / 3.67% ROI).
- 64-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.25 Units / 5.04% ROI
- 36-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -27.45 Units / -25.42% ROI
- 59-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.1 Units / 17.33% ROI
Logan Gilbert: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 29% (96/334) against Logan Gilbert this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .432 (19-for-44) against Logan Gilbert on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .331 — sixth Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OPS of just .359 (270 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .475 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 34% (111/326) against Logan Gilbert with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — sixth Percentile.
José Urquidy: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Urquidy has allowed an OBP of just .128 (47 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this month (4 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .284 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 34% (61/181) against Jose Urquidy this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .465 (20-for-43) against Jose Urquidy on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .331 — first Percentile.
Jose Urquidy has allowed an OPS of .827 (233 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .677 — sixth Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 40-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Mariners are 27-22 (.551) on the road this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .476.
The Mariners are 23-5 (.821) when scoring in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .663.
The Mariners are 29-5 (.853) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are 56-10 (.848) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Astros are 38-3 (.927) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Astros are 34-21 (.618) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .476.
The Astros are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .161 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Mariners hitters have drawn 110 walks in 996 PA’s (11%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Mariners are batting just .306 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
The Mariners are batting just .301 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 599 strikeouts in 3,248 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have just 729 strikeouts in 3,908 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 1,364 strikeouts in 6,736 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Mariners pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 7 of 192 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (21 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 393.4 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.6
Opponents are hitting just .212 against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 30% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D10
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Taylor Trammell (Mariners): Hamstring, D10
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Hernia, D60
- Kenneth Giles (Mariners): Shoulder, D15
- Diego Castillo (Mariners): Shoulder, D15
- Mitchell Haniger (Mariners): Ankle, D60
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