Mariners vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 28

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 28, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Astros (64-35) are -145 favorites vs the Mariners (54-45)
  • Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert (10-4), 2.76 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: José Urquidy (9-4), 3.93 ERA
  • Watch the game on Fox Sports 1

The Seattle Mariners (+120) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-145) on Thursday, July 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Mariners vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mariners are 54-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 51-48 ATS.

Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mariners+1.5 -165O 8 +100+120
Astros -1.5 +135U 8 -120-145

Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s matchup with 58.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 33 away games (+19.95 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Adam Frazier has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.70 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Jesse Winker has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 46 away games (+11.20 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 45 games (+10.35 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Adam Frazier has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.30 Units / 31% ROI)

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+10.15 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.95 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 22 games at home (+9.75 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.10 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.10 Units / 41% ROI)

Astros vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Chas McCormick 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Jake Meyers 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
Jose Altuve 0.5 +375 0.5 -650

Astros vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Chas McCormick 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Jake Meyers 0.5 -165 0.5 +115
Jeremy Pena 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Jose Altuve 0.5 -225 0.5 +160

Astros vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Chas McCormick 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Jake Meyers 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Jose Altuve 0.5 +195 0.5 -300

Astros vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Urquidy 4.5 -140 4.5 +100
Logan Gilbert 5.5 +115 5.5 -160
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 31 games (+19.35 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games (+12.90 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 19 away games (+11.90 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 55 games (+7.90 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 18 away games (+7.85 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 56 of their last 86 games (+20.95 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 97 games (+19.10 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 83 games (+12.75 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 17 of their last 22 games at home (+12.70 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 80 games (+8.60 Units / 9% ROI)

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 50-49 against the Run Line (-6 Units / -4.54% ROI).

  • 54-45 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.15 Units / 7.71% ROI
  • 46-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.25 Units / -8.55% ROI
  • 51-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.25 Units / 0.23% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 51-48 against the Run Line (+4.25 Units / 3.67% ROI).

  • 64-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.25 Units / 5.04% ROI
  • 36-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -27.45 Units / -25.42% ROI
  • 59-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.1 Units / 17.33% ROI

Opponents have a line drive rate of 29% (96/334) against Logan Gilbert this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .432 (19-for-44) against Logan Gilbert on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .331 — sixth Percentile.

Logan Gilbert has allowed an OPS of just .359 (270 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .475 — 96th Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 34% (111/326) against Logan Gilbert with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — sixth Percentile.

José Urquidy: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jose Urquidy has allowed an OBP of just .128 (47 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this month (4 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .284 — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 34% (61/181) against Jose Urquidy this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — seventh Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .465 (20-for-43) against Jose Urquidy on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .331 — first Percentile.

Jose Urquidy has allowed an OPS of .827 (233 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .677 — sixth Percentile.

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Mariners are 40-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .913.

The Mariners are 27-22 (.551) on the road this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .476.

The Mariners are 23-5 (.821) when scoring in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .663.

The Mariners are 29-5 (.853) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .719.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Astros are 56-10 (.848) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Astros are 38-3 (.927) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .794.

The Astros are 34-21 (.618) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .476.

The Astros are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .161 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Mariners hitters have drawn 110 walks in 996 PA’s (11%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Mariners are batting just .306 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.

The Mariners are batting just .301 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.

Astros hitters have just 599 strikeouts in 3,248 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Astros hitters have just 729 strikeouts in 3,908 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 1,364 strikeouts in 6,736 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Mariners pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Mariners pitchers have walked 7 of 192 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (21 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 393.4 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.6

Opponents are hitting just .212 against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.

The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 30% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Astros vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D10
  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
  • Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
  • Taylor Trammell (Mariners): Hamstring, D10
  • Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Evan White (Mariners): Hernia, D60
  • Kenneth Giles (Mariners): Shoulder, D15
  • Diego Castillo (Mariners): Shoulder, D15
  • Mitchell Haniger (Mariners): Ankle, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.