Mariners vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 29

min read
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 29, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Astros (65-35) are -175 favorites vs the Mariners (54-46)
  • Mariners starting pitcher: Robert Ray (8-7), 3.90 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander (13-3), 1.85 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet SW

The Seattle Mariners (+145) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-175) on Friday, July 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Mariners vs Astros Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mariners are 54-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 52-48 ATS.

Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mariners+1.5 -145O 7 +105+145
Astros -1.5 +120U 7 -125-175

Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s matchup with 65.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Astros vs Mariners and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 34 away games (+18.25 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Adam Frazier has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.70 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Jesse Winker has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 47 away games (+12.20 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 46 games (+11.35 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Adam Frazier has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.30 Units / 31% ROI)

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+11.15 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.95 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.10 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Kyle Tucker has hit the Total Bases Under in 30 of his last 43 games at home (+9.35 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 44 games at home (+9.25 Units / 19% ROI)

Astros vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aledmys Diaz 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Alex Bregman 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Jake Meyers 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Jose Altuve 0.5 +320 0.5 -550

Astros vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aledmys Diaz 0.5 -140 0.5 +100
Alex Bregman 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Jake Meyers 0.5 -120 0.5 -115
Jeremy Pena 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Jose Altuve 0.5 -200 0.5 +140

Astros vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aledmys Diaz 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Alex Bregman 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Jake Meyers 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Jose Altuve 0.5 +190 0.5 -275

Astros vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Justin Verlander 6.5 -165 6.5 +115
Robbie Ray 6.5 +105 6.5 -150
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 32 games (+18.35 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 27 of their last 41 games (+13.90 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 20 away games (+10.30 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 56 games (+8.90 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 19 away games (+8.85 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 98 games (+20.10 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 56 of their last 87 games (+19.95 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 84 games (+13.75 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games at home (+11.65 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 81 games (+10.00 Units / 11% ROI)

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 50-50 against the Run Line (-7.6 Units / -5.68% ROI).

  • 54-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.15 Units / 6.81% ROI
  • 46-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.25 Units / -9.39% ROI
  • 52-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.25 Units / 1.12% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 52-48 against the Run Line (+5.65 Units / 4.84% ROI).

  • 65-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.25 Units / 5.6% ROI
  • 36-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -28.45 Units / -26.1% ROI
  • 60-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +20.1 Units / 18.04% ROI

Robbie Ray has allowed a slugging percentage of .857 (36 Total Bases / 42 ABs) on low fastballs this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: .433 — first Percentile.

Robbie Ray has thrown inside pitches 50% of the time (791/1,594) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Robbie Ray has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (1,440/3,426) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 97th Percentile.

Robbie Ray has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (460/1,027) when behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .152 (35-for-231) against Justin Verlander on the road this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .138 (15 Total Bases / 109 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .290 — 98th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .461 (211 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .662 — 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has walked 21 of 449 batters (5%) this season — tied for 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 89th Percentile.

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Mariners are 40-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .913.

The Mariners are 21-6 (.778) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Mariners are 29-5 (.853) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .719.

The Mariners are 27-23 (.540) on the road this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .475.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Astros are 35-5 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Astros are 38-3 (.927) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .793.

The Astros are 31-14 (.689) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .525.

The Astros are 23-4 (.852) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .719.

Mariners hitters have drawn 110 walks in 996 PA’s (11%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .161 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

The Mariners are batting just .300 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.

Mariners hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Astros hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Astros hitters have just 599 strikeouts in 3,248 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Astros are batting .185 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Astros hitters have just 1,372 strikeouts in 6,769 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Mariners pitchers have walked 7 of 200 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (22 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

The Mariners have won 40% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Mariners pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% this month (25 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Astros vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D10
  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
  • Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
  • Taylor Trammell (Mariners): Hamstring, D10
  • Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Evan White (Mariners): Hernia, D60
  • Kenneth Giles (Mariners): Shoulder, D15
  • Diego Castillo (Mariners): Shoulder, D15
  • Mitchell Haniger (Mariners): Ankle, D60

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Astros vs Mariners and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.