- The Astros (65-35) are -175 favorites vs the Mariners (54-46)
- Mariners starting pitcher: Robert Ray (8-7), 3.90 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander (13-3), 1.85 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Seattle Mariners (+145) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-175) on Friday, July 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Mariners vs Astros Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mariners are 54-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 52-48 ATS.
Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -145 | O 7 +105 | +145 |
| Astros | -1.5 +120 | U 7 -125 | -175 |
Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s matchup with 65.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 34 away games (+18.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.70 Units / 58% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 47 away games (+12.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 46 games (+11.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.30 Units / 31% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+11.15 Units / 61% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.95 Units / 70% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Total Bases Under in 30 of his last 43 games at home (+9.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 44 games at home (+9.25 Units / 19% ROI)
Astros vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aledmys Diaz | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
Astros vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aledmys Diaz | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +100 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -115 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
Astros vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aledmys Diaz | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
Astros vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander | 6.5 -165 | 6.5 +115 |
| Robbie Ray | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 32 games (+18.35 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 27 of their last 41 games (+13.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 20 away games (+10.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 56 games (+8.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 19 away games (+8.85 Units / 40% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 98 games (+20.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 56 of their last 87 games (+19.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 84 games (+13.75 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games at home (+11.65 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 81 games (+10.00 Units / 11% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 50-50 against the Run Line (-7.6 Units / -5.68% ROI).
- 54-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.15 Units / 6.81% ROI
- 46-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.25 Units / -9.39% ROI
- 52-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.25 Units / 1.12% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 52-48 against the Run Line (+5.65 Units / 4.84% ROI).
- 65-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.25 Units / 5.6% ROI
- 36-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -28.45 Units / -26.1% ROI
- 60-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +20.1 Units / 18.04% ROI
Robert Ray: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Robbie Ray has allowed a slugging percentage of .857 (36 Total Bases / 42 ABs) on low fastballs this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: .433 — first Percentile.
Robbie Ray has thrown inside pitches 50% of the time (791/1,594) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Robbie Ray has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (1,440/3,426) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 97th Percentile.
Robbie Ray has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (460/1,027) when behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .152 (35-for-231) against Justin Verlander on the road this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .138 (15 Total Bases / 109 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .290 — 98th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .461 (211 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .662 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has walked 21 of 449 batters (5%) this season — tied for 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 89th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 40-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Mariners are 21-6 (.778) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Mariners are 29-5 (.853) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Mariners are 27-23 (.540) on the road this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .475.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are 35-5 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Astros are 38-3 (.927) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
The Astros are 31-14 (.689) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .525.
The Astros are 23-4 (.852) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters have drawn 110 walks in 996 PA’s (11%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .161 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .300 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.
Mariners hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros hitters have just 599 strikeouts in 3,248 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros are batting .185 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Astros hitters have just 1,372 strikeouts in 6,769 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 7 of 200 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (22 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Mariners have won 40% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Mariners pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% this month (25 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D10
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Taylor Trammell (Mariners): Hamstring, D10
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Hernia, D60
- Kenneth Giles (Mariners): Shoulder, D15
- Diego Castillo (Mariners): Shoulder, D15
- Mitchell Haniger (Mariners): Ankle, D60
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