Mariners vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 30

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 30, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Astros (66-35) are -190 favorites vs the Mariners (54-47)
  • Mariners starting pitcher: Christoper Flexen (7-8), 3.74 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez (9-4), 2.73 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet SW

The Seattle Mariners (+155) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-190) on Saturday, July 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Mariners vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mariners are 54-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 53-48 ATS.

Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mariners+1.5 -130O 8 -115+155
Astros -1.5 +105U 8 -105-190

Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s matchup with 57.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 35 away games (+17.00 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 47 games (+12.35 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Carlos Santana has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.00 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Adam Frazier has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.70 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Adam Frazier has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+9.70 Units / 26% ROI)

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+12.45 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+12.10 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 24 games at home (+10.40 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 45 games at home (+10.25 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.10 Units / 48% ROI)

Astros vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Jose Altuve 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +325 0.5 -550
Martin Maldonado 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100

Astros vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Jeremy Pena 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Jose Altuve 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Kyle Tucker 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Martin Maldonado 0.5 -110 0.5 -130

Astros vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Jose Altuve 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Martin Maldonado 0.5 +240 0.5 -375

Astros vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Framber Valdez 5.5 -155 5.5 +110
Chris Flexen 3.5 -120 3.5 -115
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 33 games (+17.35 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 27 of their last 42 games (+12.90 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 21 away games (+8.95 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 57 games (+7.90 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 20 away games (+7.85 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 57 of their last 88 games (+20.95 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 99 games (+19.10 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 59 of their last 85 games (+14.75 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 24 games at home (+12.65 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 82 games (+11.15 Units / 12% ROI)

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 50-51 against the Run Line (-8.95 Units / -6.62% ROI).

  • 54-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.15 Units / 5.93% ROI
  • 47-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.25 Units / -8.38% ROI
  • 52-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.25 Units / 0.22% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 53-48 against the Run Line (+6.8 Units / 5.77% ROI).

  • 66-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.25 Units / 6.13% ROI
  • 37-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -27.45 Units / -24.91% ROI
  • 60-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.1 Units / 16.99% ROI

Chris Flexen has a strike rate of just 61% (533/878) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.

Chris Flexen has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 54% (164/303) of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — third Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (116/341) against Chris Flexen this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — sixth Percentile.

Chris Flexen has thrown his slider 40% of the time (401/1,001) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.

Framber Valdez: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (226/337) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (76/112) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 69% (196/284) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

The average home run distance against Framber Valdez against right-handed batters since the start of last season is 376.5 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 399.4

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Mariners are 40-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .913.

The Mariners are 37-7 (.841) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.

The Mariners are 6-37 (.140) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .115.

The Mariners are 40-1 (.976) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .885.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Astros are 4-28 (.125) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .087.

The Astros are 10-4 (.714) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Astros are 58-10 (.853) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Astros are 25-10 (.714) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .662.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .161 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .166 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

The Mariners are batting just .307 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.

The Mariners are batting just .221 at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Astros hitters have just 602 strikeouts in 3,278 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Astros hitters have just 1,374 strikeouts in 6,786 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Mariners pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Mariners pitchers have walked 8 of 208 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (23 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 30% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Astros vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D10
  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
  • Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
  • Taylor Trammell (Mariners): Hamstring, D10
  • Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Tomaso Milone (Mariners): Neck, D15
  • Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Evan White (Mariners): Hernia, D60
  • Kenneth Giles (Mariners): Shoulder, D15
  • Diego Castillo (Mariners): Shoulder, D15
  • Mitchell Haniger (Mariners): Ankle, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.