- The Astros (66-35) are -190 favorites vs the Mariners (54-47)
- Mariners starting pitcher: Christoper Flexen (7-8), 3.74 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez (9-4), 2.73 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Seattle Mariners (+155) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-190) on Saturday, July 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Mariners vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mariners are 54-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 53-48 ATS.
Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -130 | O 8 -115 | +155 |
| Astros | -1.5 +105 | U 8 -105 | -190 |
Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s matchup with 57.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 35 away games (+17.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 47 games (+12.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+9.70 Units / 26% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+12.45 Units / 64% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+12.10 Units / 73% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 24 games at home (+10.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 45 games at home (+10.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.10 Units / 48% ROI)
Astros vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Astros vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -130 |
Astros vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
Astros vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +110 |
| Chris Flexen | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 33 games (+17.35 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 27 of their last 42 games (+12.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 21 away games (+8.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 57 games (+7.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 20 away games (+7.85 Units / 34% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 57 of their last 88 games (+20.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 99 games (+19.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 59 of their last 85 games (+14.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 24 games at home (+12.65 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 82 games (+11.15 Units / 12% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 50-51 against the Run Line (-8.95 Units / -6.62% ROI).
- 54-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.15 Units / 5.93% ROI
- 47-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.25 Units / -8.38% ROI
- 52-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.25 Units / 0.22% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 53-48 against the Run Line (+6.8 Units / 5.77% ROI).
- 66-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.25 Units / 6.13% ROI
- 37-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -27.45 Units / -24.91% ROI
- 60-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.1 Units / 16.99% ROI
Christoper Flexen: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Flexen has a strike rate of just 61% (533/878) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.
Chris Flexen has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 54% (164/303) of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (116/341) against Chris Flexen this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — sixth Percentile.
Chris Flexen has thrown his slider 40% of the time (401/1,001) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (226/337) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (76/112) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 69% (196/284) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
The average home run distance against Framber Valdez against right-handed batters since the start of last season is 376.5 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 399.4
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 40-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Mariners are 37-7 (.841) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Mariners are 6-37 (.140) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Mariners are 40-1 (.976) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .885.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are 4-28 (.125) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Astros are 10-4 (.714) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 58-10 (.853) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Astros are 25-10 (.714) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .662.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .161 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .166 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .307 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
The Mariners are batting just .221 at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 602 strikeouts in 3,278 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have just 1,374 strikeouts in 6,786 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Mariners pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 8 of 208 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (23 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 30% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D10
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Taylor Trammell (Mariners): Hamstring, D10
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Tomaso Milone (Mariners): Neck, D15
- Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Hernia, D60
- Kenneth Giles (Mariners): Shoulder, D15
- Diego Castillo (Mariners): Shoulder, D15
- Mitchell Haniger (Mariners): Ankle, D60
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