- The Mariners are -110 favorites vs the Astros
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo
- Astros starting pitcher: Hunter Brown
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Seattle Mariners (-110) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-110) on Friday, July 7, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Mariners vs Astros Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 43-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 47-41 ATS.
Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +155 | O 7.5 -120 | -110 |
| Astros | +1.5 -190 | U 7.5 +100 | -110 |
Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- George Kirby has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.05 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+9.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Cal Raleigh has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+8.50 Units / 61% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 40 games (+7.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 27 of his last 43 games (+7.65 Units / 14% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+12.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+10.05 Units / 57% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Singles Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 9 games (+9.05 Units / 80% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 16 games (+9.05 Units / 57% ROI)
Astros vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Astros vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Astros vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Astros vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -105 |
| Luis Castillo | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.20 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.15 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 34 games (+3.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 34 of their last 57 games (+14.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 15 games (+9.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 33 games (+8.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 53 games (+7.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 53 games (+7.35 Units / 11% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 40-46 against the Run Line (-10.55 Units / -9.37% ROI).
- 43-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.2 Units / -9.83% ROI
- 43-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.4 Units / -2.51% ROI
- 41-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -6 Units / -6.39% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 47-41 against the Run Line (+3.3 Units / 2.89% ROI).
- 49-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.75 Units / -1.33% ROI
- 43-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.75 Units / -4.86% ROI
- 43-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.05 Units / -4.21% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .108 (10-for-93) against Luis Castillo’s elevated fastball this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .221 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 41% (62/150) against Luis Castillo on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 98th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has allowed an OBP of just .240 (196 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — 98th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has thrown fastballs 68% of the time (540/795) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 96th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (75/128) against Hunter Brown this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 94th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 53% (36/68) against Hunter Brown on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — third Percentile.
Hunter Brown has thrown breaking pitches 55% of the time (402/735) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of just 16% (20/128) against Hunter Brown when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
keys to the game – away
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
keys to the game – home
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
team pitchers – away
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
team pitchers – home
Astros vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Framber Valdez (Astros): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Oblique, D10
- Jose Altuve (Astros): Oblique, D10
- José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Miller (Mariners): Finger, D15
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
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