- The Astros are -120 favorites vs the Mariners
- Mariners starting pitcher: Bryan Woo
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez
- Watch the game on FOX
The Seattle Mariners (+100) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-120) on Saturday, July 8, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+170).
The Mariners vs Astros Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 44-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 47-42 ATS.
Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -210 | O 7 +100 | +100 |
| Astros | -1.5 +170 | U 7 -120 | -120 |
Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 57.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- George Kirby has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.05 Units / 51% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 41 games (+8.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 44 games (+8.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+7.60 Units / 76% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+9.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+9.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+9.35 Units / 26% ROI)
Astros vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -600 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Astros vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
Astros vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Astros vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Woo | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -105 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.20 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.15 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 35 games (+4.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.70 Units / 32% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 34 of their last 58 games (+12.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.35 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games (+7.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 54 games (+6.65 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 54 games (+6.35 Units / 9% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 41-46 against the Run Line (-9.55 Units / -8.32% ROI).
- 44-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.2 Units / -8.94% ROI
- 44-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.4 Units / -1.44% ROI
- 41-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -7 Units / -7.38% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 47-42 against the Run Line (+2.3 Units / 2% ROI).
- 49-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.85 Units / -2.15% ROI
- 44-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.75 Units / -3.79% ROI
- 43-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.05 Units / -5.2% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryan Woo has allowed an OBP of just .121 (58 PA’s) against right-handed batters over the last 30 days (5 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .089 (5-for-56) against Bryan Woo over the last 30 days (5 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 100th Percentile.
Bryan Woo has allowed a just .089 SLG vs right-handed batters (best)– 100th Percentile and .667 vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (third worst among qualified SPs)– fourth Percentile.
Bryan Woo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .089 (5 Total Bases / 56 ABs) against right-handed batters over the last 30 days (5 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .389 — 100th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 49% of the time (594/1,222) with two-strikes since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 50% of the time (200/397) with two-strikes this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 65% (167/256) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 99 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 38% (89/234) against Framber Valdez this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 29-3 (.906) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Mariners are 62-9 (.873) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Mariners are 19-10 (.655) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners are 104-5 (.954) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .908.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are 9-6 (.600) after a loss as underdogs this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
The Astros are just 5-10 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 130-9 (.935) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Astros are 155-96 (.618) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .121 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
The Mariners are batting just .113 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
The Mariners are batting just .315 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .168 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 477 strikeouts in 2,725 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 857 strikeouts in 4,806 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 156 strikeouts in 875 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
13% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,262/9,418 PA’s) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Mariners pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 225 of 3,223 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have a strike rate of 67% this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 676 of 9,253 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 32% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 34% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Oblique, D10
- Jose Altuve (Astros): Oblique, D10
- José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Miller (Mariners): Finger, D15
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
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