- The Mariners are -135 favorites vs the Astros
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert
- Astros starting pitcher: Brandon Bielak
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Seattle Mariners (-135) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (+110) on Sunday, July 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Mariners vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 44-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 47-43 ATS.
Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +125 | O 8 +100 | -135 |
| Astros | +1.5 -155 | U 8 -120 | +110 |
Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 62.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- George Kirby has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.05 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+7.60 Units / 76% ROI)
- Cal Raleigh has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+7.50 Units / 50% ROI)
- Taylor Trammell has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+6.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- Logan Gilbert has hit the Strikeouts Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.80 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 9 games (+9.05 Units / 80% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 16 games (+9.05 Units / 57% ROI)
- J.P. France has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 8 games (+8.25 Units / 85% ROI)
- Hunter Brown has hit the Strikeouts Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.25 Units / 72% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+8.20 Units / 14% ROI)
Astros vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Astros vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 1.5 +150 | 1.5 -200 |
Astros vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Astros vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bielak | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
| Logan Gilbert | 5.5 +140 | 5.5 -185 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.15 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 36 games (+3.55 Units / 9% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 55 games (+7.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 67 games (+5.35 Units / 7% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 42-46 against the Run Line (-8.55 Units / -7.33% ROI).
- 44-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.2 Units / -9.66% ROI
- 44-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.45 Units / -2.5% ROI
- 42-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -6 Units / -6.25% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 47-43 against the Run Line (+1.3 Units / 1.12% ROI).
- 50-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.85 Units / -1.38% ROI
- 44-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.8 Units / -4.8% ROI
- 44-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.05 Units / -4.12% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .230 against Logan Gilbert on the first pitch of at-bats this season — third best among qualified SPs– 96th Percentile. Opponents batted .476 (39-for-82) against him on the first pitch of at-bats last season — worst among qualified SPs– second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .103 (11-for-107) against Logan Gilbert versus the bottom of the order this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 100th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .143 (112 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .291 — 100th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .251 (211 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .316 — 93rd Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Bielak has induced opposing hitters to ground into 10 double plays in 45 opportunities (22%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 99th Percentile.
Brandon Bielak has walked 4 of 24 batters (17%) over the past seven days (1 games) — highest in AL over the last week; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 62% (80/129) against Brandon Bielak on pitches in the strike zone this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Brandon Bielak has a strikeout rate of just 8% (4 SO in 52 PAs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 20% — third Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 29-3 (.906) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Mariners are 8-102 (.073) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Mariners are just 3-20 (.130) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Mariners are 108-3 (.973) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are 45-32 (.584) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Astros are 28-17 (.622) after a road loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Astros are 69-14 (.831) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Astros are 33-17 (.660) after a home loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .279 (391 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .327.
The Mariners are batting just .314 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Mariners hitters have 220 strikeouts in 843 PA’s (26%) against LHP this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mariners are batting just .113 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 477 strikeouts in 2,725 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 857 strikeouts in 4,806 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Astros have won 91% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 227 of 3,253 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 678 of 9,283 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Mariners pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners pitchers have a strike rate of 67% this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 32% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.27 (1097.1 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.23.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Oblique, D10
- Jose Altuve (Astros): Oblique, D10
- José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Miller (Mariners): Finger, D15
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
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