- The Astros (35-20) are -250 favorites vs the Mariners (25-30)
- Mariners starting pitcher: Christoper Flexen (2-6), 4.55 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander (6-2), 2.22 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Seattle Mariners (+200) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-250) on Tuesday, June 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Mariners vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mariners are 25-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 27-28 ATS.
Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 +100 | O 8 -110 | +200 |
| Astros | -1.5 -120 | U 8 -110 | -250 |
Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ty France has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 48 games (+15.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+13.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 away games (+11.45 Units / 50% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 47 games (+11.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 49 games (+11.05 Units / 21% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 21 games at home (+8.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+8.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+7.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+7.10 Units / 101% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 61% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 26 of their last 46 games (+7.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Strikeouts Under in 20 of their last 31 away games (+6.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+5.05 Units / 46% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 53 games (+19.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 39 games (+11.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+8.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+7.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+6.40 Units / 21% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 28-27 against the Run Line (-5.7 Units / -7.49% ROI).
- 25-30 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -6.18% ROI
- 29-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.05 Units / 3.39% ROI
- 25-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.8 Units / -11.14% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 27-28 against the Run Line (+0.45 Units / 0.71% ROI).
- 35-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.45 Units / 8.88% ROI
- 16-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.65 Units / -39.35% ROI
- 37-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.6 Units / 32.1% ROI
Christoper Flexen: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Flexen has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 55% (84/153) of opposing batters this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Chris Flexen has a strike rate of just 61% (323/528) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — second Percentile.
Chris Flexen has thrown his slider 41% of the time (323/796) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .291 (39-for-134) against Chris Flexen this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — 13th Percentile.
Justin Verlander: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .113 (6 Total Bases / 53 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .287 — 98th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .229 (240 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .295 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 12% (10/84) against Justin Verlander this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has a strikeout rate of 49% (28 SO in 57 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 94th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are just 0-25 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Mariners are 19-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .925.
The Mariners are just 4-15 (.211) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.
The Mariners are 20-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .906.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are 21-13 (.618) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .488.
The Astros are 28-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .925.
The Astros are 20-1 (.952) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Astros are 2-17 (.105) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .075.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .156 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.
The Mariners are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Mariners hitters have been successful in 86% of their bunt for hit attempts since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Mariners are batting just .107 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .156.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 490 strikeouts in 2,692 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have an OBP of .269 (4,302 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Astros are batting .190 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .167.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Mariners pitchers have allowed 121 barreled balls this season — tied for 2nd most in MLB.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 10% when going through the lineup the third time in a game over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.46 (190.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.85.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 39% of their games since the start of last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Astros vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taylor Jones (Astros): Back, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Jacob Odorizzi (Astros): Leg, D15
- Jacob Meyers (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Kyle Lewis (Mariners): Concussion, D7
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D10
- Kenneth Giles (Mariners): Finger, D60
- Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Sports Hernia, D60
- Erik Swanson (Mariners): Right Shouler, D15
- Mitchell Haniger (Mariners): Ankle, D10
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