- The Astros (36-20) are -150 favorites vs the Mariners (25-31)
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert (5-2), 2.215 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: José Urquidy (5-2), 4.765 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Seattle Mariners (+125) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-150) on Wednesday, June 8, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Mariners vs Astros Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mariners are 25-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 28-28 ATS.
Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -160 | O 8.5 -115 | +125 |
| Astros | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -105 | -150 |
Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 74.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ty France has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 49 games (+16.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 26 away games (+14.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.45 Units / 51% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 48 games (+12.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 33 away games (+10.15 Units / 18% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+9.05 Units / 113% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 22 games at home (+7.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+7.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Michael Brantley has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.95 Units / 41% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Strikeouts Under in 21 of their last 32 away games (+7.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 26 of their last 47 games (+6.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.80 Units / 16% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 54 games (+20.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 40 games (+12.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 18 games at home (+9.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+8.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 games at home (+7.40 Units / 23% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 28-28 against the Run Line (-6.7 Units / -8.68% ROI).
- 25-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.9 Units / -7.64% ROI
- 29-26 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.9 Units / 1.46% ROI
- 26-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.8 Units / -9.34% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 28-28 against the Run Line (+1.45 Units / 2.25% ROI).
- 36-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.45 Units / 9.75% ROI
- 16-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.8 Units / -40.49% ROI
- 38-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +20.6 Units / 33.17% ROI
Logan Gilbert: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting just .157 (16-for-102) against Logan Gilbert this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .227 — 98th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed a slugging percentage of just .225 (23 Total Bases / 102 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .374 — 98th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed a slugging percentage of just .150 (3 Total Bases / 20 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .426 — 96th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed a slugging percentage of just .239 (26 Total Bases / 109 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .351 — 91st Percentile.
José Urquidy: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .341 (29-for-85) against Jose Urquidy’s non-fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 25 total IP; League Avg: .221 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .600 (15-for-25) against Jose Urquidy on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 25 total IP; League Avg: .327 — first Percentile.
Jose Urquidy has a strike rate of 70% (254/362) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 25 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a Well-Hit Avg of .336 (42/125) against Jose Urquidy when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: .210 — 0 Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are just 0-26 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .095.
The Mariners are 20-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .905.
The Mariners are just 13-21 (.382) on the road this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .487.
The Mariners are just 7-25 (.219) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are 30-1 (.968) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .905.
The Astros are 15-7 (.682) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .513.
The Astros are 29-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .925.
The Astros are 33-7 (.825) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .156 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.
The Mariners are batting just .302 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.
The Mariners are batting just .297 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.
The Mariners are batting just .108 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .156.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 490 strikeouts in 2,696 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have an OBP of .269 (4,321 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Astros are batting .190 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .167.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 581 times this season — 5th most in MLB.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.40 (199.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.84.
The Astros have allowed 2.86 runs per game (63/22) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 394.0 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.9
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 51% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Astros vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taylor Jones (Astros): Back, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Jacob Odorizzi (Astros): Leg, D15
- Jacob Meyers (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Left elbow, D15
- Kyle Lewis (Mariners): Concussion, D7
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D10
- Kenneth Giles (Mariners): Finger, D60
- Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Sports Hernia, D60
- Erik Swanson (Mariners): Right Shouler, D15
- Mitchell Haniger (Mariners): Ankle, D10
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