• The Mariners are -140 favorites vs the Astros
• Mariners vs Astros Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
• Mariners / Astros TV Channel: FS1 | MRTV | SCHN

The Seattle Mariners (-140) visit Daikin Park to take on the Houston Astros (+115) on May 11, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 pm in Houston, TX.

This season, the Mariners are 19-22 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 16-25 ATS.

Mariners vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:

• Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby 4-2, 2.94 ERA
• Astros starting pitcher: Peter Lambert 2-2, 2.46 ERA

Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Monday‘s MLB game with 64.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Mariners vs Astros and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:

• J.P. Crawford has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+19.00 Units / 190% ROI)
• Luke Raley has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.75 Units / 36% ROI)
• Cal Raleigh has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+11.55 Units / 31% ROI)
• Luke Raley has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+11.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+10.90 Units / 24% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Braden Shewmake has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+17.00 Units / 425% ROI)
• Cam Smith has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+10.40 Units / 103% ROI)
• Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.25 Units / 33% ROI)
• Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.80 Units / 37% ROI)
• Cam Smith has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+9.00 Units / 70% ROI)

Mariners Best Bets Today:

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 away games (+10.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 away games (+8.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 away games (+5.50 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.80 Units / 36% ROI)

Astros Best Bets Today:

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+12.00 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games (+10.55 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+4.90 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+1.70 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 17 games at home (+0.15 Units / 1% ROI)

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 14-27 against the Run Line (-10.4 Units / -23.83% ROI).

• 19-22 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.4 Units / -18.15% ROI
• 18-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.15 Units / -13.62% ROI
• 22-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.3 Units / 5.1% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Astros are 16-25 against the Run Line (-11.95 Units / -22.94% ROI).

• 16-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.4 Units / -23.08% ROI
• 26-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.9 Units / 21.45% ROI
• 14-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.3 Units / -32.43% ROI

Astros vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today

Astros vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Astros vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Mariners are 7-3 (.700) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season Today, they face the Astros (seventh in runs scored).

The Mariners are just 13-3 (.812) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .893.

The Mariners are 6-78 (.071) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .045.

The Mariners are 23-14 (.622) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Astros are just 3-12 (.200) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .376.

The Astros are just 16-25 (.390) this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Astros are just 16-22 (.421) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.

The Astros are just 0-23 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .107.

Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends

Mariners hitters have put just 30% of their swings in play with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB.

The Mariners are batting just .147 with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.

Mariners hitters have an OPS of just .617 (470 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Mariners hitters have an OPS of just .648 (477 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Astros Hitting Stats & Trends

Astros hitters have an OBP of .415 (171 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB.

The Astros are batting .338 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB.

The Astros are batting .278 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Astros hitters have an OPS of .956 (171 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB.

Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends

Mariners pitchers have a first-pitch strike rate of 67% this season — highest in MLB.

Mariners pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — best in MLB.

Mariners pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 71% of opposing batters this season — highest in MLB.

Mariners pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 35 double plays in 281 opportunities (12%) this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Astros Pitching Stats & Trends

Astros pitchers have walked 13% of batters this season — highest in MLB.

The Astros have allowed 3.66 runs per game (150/41) in the first 5 innings this season — highest in MLB.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 5.57 (357.1 IP) this season — highest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Astros pitchers this season — lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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