- The Astros (0-0) are -250 favorites vs the Mariners (2-0)
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert (-), – ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander (-), – ERA
- Watch the game on TBS
The Seattle Mariners (+200) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-250) on Tuesday, October 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 3:37pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Mariners vs Astros Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mariners are 92-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 86-76 ATS.
Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -115 | O 6.5 -110 | +200 |
| Astros | -1.5 -105 | U 6.5 -110 | -250 |
Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 54.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 42 of his last 54 away games (+22.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 51 away games (+12.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 36 of his last 54 away games (+11.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 17 away games (+11.85 Units / 42% ROI)
- Dylan Moore has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+10.70 Units / 66% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 44 of his last 79 games at home (+15.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+13.25 Units / 41% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+10.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- Justin Verlander has hit the Earned Runs Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+9.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 37 games at home (+8.90 Units / 11% ROI)
Astros vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Astros vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -160 |
Astros vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
Astros vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -115 |
| Logan Gilbert | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -175 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 55 away games (+17.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 53 away games (+14.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 21 of their last 30 away games (+13.50 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 61 away games (+12.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 37 away games (+11.10 Units / 26% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 96 of their last 149 games (+32.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 91 of their last 160 games (+25.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 99 of their last 146 games (+19.80 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 79 of their last 143 games (+15.35 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 80 games at home (+12.45 Units / 13% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 85-79 against the Run Line (-5.4 Units / -2.5% ROI).
- 92-72 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.85 Units / 3.15% ROI
- 76-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.6 Units / -5.89% ROI
- 80-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.75 Units / -1.52% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 86-76 against the Run Line (+11 Units / 5.75% ROI).
- 106-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.3 Units / 5.36% ROI
- 60-92 when betting on the total runs Over for -39.8 Units / -22.45% ROI
- 92-60 when betting on the total runs Under for +25.3 Units / 14.08% ROI
Logan Gilbert: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .476 (39-for-82) against Logan Gilbert on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .337 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 28% (153/537) against Logan Gilbert this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 34% (172/508) against Logan Gilbert with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% (200/537) against Logan Gilbert this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 10th Percentile.
Justin Verlander: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .497 (666 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .663 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .227 (665 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has a strike rate of 71% (609/852) in two strike counts this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 95th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .228 (71 Total Bases / 312 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .382 — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 15-6 (.714) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners are 47-10 (.825) when scoring in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Mariners are 19-2 (.905) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Mariners are 9-59 (.132) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 47-5 (.904) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .169 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Mariners hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .172 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Mariners hitters have drawn 190 walks in 1,784 PA’s (11%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 4,591 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 321 strikeouts in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 2,401 strikeouts in 12,345 PA’s (19%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Mariners have won 35% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 392.8 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 54% against Astros pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Astros vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Julio Rodríguez (Mariners): Back, D10
- Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Borucki (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Jesse Winker (Mariners): Neck, D10
- Samuel Haggerty (Mariners): Groin, D10
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