Mariners vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 11

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 11, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Astros (0-0) are -250 favorites vs the Mariners (2-0)
  • Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert (-), ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander (-), ERA
  • Watch the game on TBS

The Seattle Mariners (+200) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-250) on Tuesday, October 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 3:37pm EDT in Houston.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Mariners vs Astros Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mariners are 92-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 86-76 ATS.

Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mariners+1.5 -115O 6.5 -110+200
Astros -1.5 -105U 6.5 -110-250

Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 54.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Astros vs Mariners and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 42 of his last 54 away games (+22.50 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 51 away games (+12.50 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 36 of his last 54 away games (+11.95 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Carlos Santana has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 17 away games (+11.85 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Dylan Moore has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+10.70 Units / 66% ROI)

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 44 of his last 79 games at home (+15.10 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+13.25 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+10.50 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Justin Verlander has hit the Earned Runs Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+9.50 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 37 games at home (+8.90 Units / 11% ROI)

Astros vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Jose Altuve 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Martin Maldonado 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000

Astros vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Jeremy Pena 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Jose Altuve 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Kyle Tucker 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Martin Maldonado 0.5 +115 0.5 -160

Astros vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Jose Altuve 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Martin Maldonado 0.5 +333 0.5 -600

Astros vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Justin Verlander 6.5 -120 6.5 -115
Logan Gilbert 4.5 +120 4.5 -175
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 55 away games (+17.35 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 53 away games (+14.65 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 21 of their last 30 away games (+13.50 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 61 away games (+12.10 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 37 away games (+11.10 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 96 of their last 149 games (+32.00 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 91 of their last 160 games (+25.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 99 of their last 146 games (+19.80 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 79 of their last 143 games (+15.35 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 80 games at home (+12.45 Units / 13% ROI)

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 85-79 against the Run Line (-5.4 Units / -2.5% ROI).

  • 92-72 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.85 Units / 3.15% ROI
  • 76-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.6 Units / -5.89% ROI
  • 80-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.75 Units / -1.52% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 86-76 against the Run Line (+11 Units / 5.75% ROI).

  • 106-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.3 Units / 5.36% ROI
  • 60-92 when betting on the total runs Over for -39.8 Units / -22.45% ROI
  • 92-60 when betting on the total runs Under for +25.3 Units / 14.08% ROI

Opponents are hitting .476 (39-for-82) against Logan Gilbert on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .337 — second Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 28% (153/537) against Logan Gilbert this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 34% (172/508) against Logan Gilbert with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% (200/537) against Logan Gilbert this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 10th Percentile.

Justin Verlander: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .497 (666 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .663 — 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .227 (665 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has a strike rate of 71% (609/852) in two strike counts this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 95th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .228 (71 Total Bases / 312 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .382 — 100th Percentile.

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Mariners are 15-6 (.714) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mariners are 47-10 (.825) when scoring in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Mariners are 19-2 (.905) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

The Mariners are 9-59 (.132) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Astros are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Astros are 47-5 (.904) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.

The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.

The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .169 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Mariners hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .172 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Mariners hitters have drawn 190 walks in 1,784 PA’s (11%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 4,591 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 321 strikeouts in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 2,401 strikeouts in 12,345 PA’s (19%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

The Mariners have won 35% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 392.8 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 54% against Astros pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Astros vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
  • Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Julio Rodríguez (Mariners): Back, D10
  • Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Ryan Borucki (Mariners): Forearm, D15
  • Jesse Winker (Mariners): Neck, D10
  • Samuel Haggerty (Mariners): Groin, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.