- The Astros are -155 favorites vs the Mariners
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo, 0.00 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez, – ERA
- Watch the game on TBS
The Seattle Mariners (+125) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-155) on Thursday, October 13, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 3:37pm EDT in Houston for this postseason game.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Mariners vs Astros Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mariners are 92-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 86-77 ATS.
Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -175 | O 6.5 +100 | +125 |
| Astros | -1.5 +145 | U 6.5 -120 | -155 |
Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s matchup with 54.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 43 of his last 55 away games (+23.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Over in 29 of his last 52 away games (+14.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 37 of his last 55 away games (+12.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 18 away games (+12.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Dylan Moore has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+10.70 Units / 66% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 45 of his last 80 games at home (+16.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+13.25 Units / 41% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+10.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 38 games at home (+9.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+9.00 Units / 44% ROI)
Astros vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
Astros vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -190 |
Astros vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Astros vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -110 |
| Luis Castillo | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -160 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 56 away games (+16.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 54 away games (+15.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 31 away games (+14.60 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 62 away games (+13.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 38 away games (+12.10 Units / 27% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 96 of their last 150 games (+30.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 91 of their last 161 games (+24.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 100 of their last 147 games (+20.80 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 79 of their last 144 games (+14.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 81 games at home (+11.45 Units / 12% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 86-79 against the Run Line (-4.4 Units / -2.03% ROI).
- 92-73 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.85 Units / 2.68% ROI
- 77-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.6 Units / -5.3% ROI
- 80-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.85 Units / -2.11% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 86-77 against the Run Line (+9.95 Units / 5.17% ROI).
- 107-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.3 Units / 5.66% ROI
- 61-92 when betting on the total runs Over for -38.8 Units / -21.75% ROI
- 92-61 when betting on the total runs Under for +24.2 Units / 13.39% ROI
Luis Castillo: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 13.1 innings pitched — Sam Hentges has the longest active streak at 24.1.
Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 48% (62 SO in 130 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .096 (11-for-114) against Luis Castillo’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .224 — 99th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has pitched 12.2 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Raisel Iglesias has the longest active streak at 25.0.
Framber Valdez: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (372/555) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (119/174) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 69% (539/783) against Framber Valdez since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (636/933) against Framber Valdez since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 36-15 (.706) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners are 69-2 (.972) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Mariners are 8-65 (.110) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Mariners are 9-59 (.132) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Astros are 86-8 (.915) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Astros are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .168 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .219 at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Mariners are batting just .129 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Mariners hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 321 strikeouts in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Astros hitters have just 2,401 strikeouts in 12,345 PA’s (19%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 12% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (14 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Astros have allowed 3.27 runs per game (265/81) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.
Astros vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Julio Rodríguez (Mariners): Back, D10
- Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Borucki (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Jesse Winker (Mariners): Neck, D10
- Samuel Haggerty (Mariners): Groin, D10
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