Mariners vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 13, ALDS

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 13, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Astros are -155 favorites vs the Mariners
  • Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo, 0.00 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez, ERA
  • Watch the game on TBS

The Seattle Mariners (+125) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-155) on Thursday, October 13, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 3:37pm EDT in Houston for this postseason game.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Mariners vs Astros Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mariners are 92-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 86-77 ATS.

Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mariners+1.5 -175O 6.5 +100+125
Astros -1.5 +145U 6.5 -120-155

Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s matchup with 54.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Astros vs Mariners and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 43 of his last 55 away games (+23.50 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Over in 29 of his last 52 away games (+14.40 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 37 of his last 55 away games (+12.95 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Carlos Santana has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 18 away games (+12.85 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Dylan Moore has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+10.70 Units / 66% ROI)

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 45 of his last 80 games at home (+16.50 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+13.25 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+10.50 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 38 games at home (+9.90 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Jeremy Pena has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+9.00 Units / 44% ROI)

Astros vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Jose Altuve 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Martin Maldonado 0.5 +900 0.5 -5000

Astros vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Jeremy Pena 0.5 -210 0.5 +145
Jose Altuve 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Kyle Tucker 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Martin Maldonado 0.5 +135 0.5 -190

Astros vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
Jose Altuve 0.5 +300 0.5 -500
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Martin Maldonado 0.5 +375 0.5 -700

Astros vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Framber Valdez 5.5 -125 5.5 -110
Luis Castillo 5.5 +115 5.5 -160
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 56 away games (+16.35 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 54 away games (+15.65 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 31 away games (+14.60 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 62 away games (+13.10 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 38 away games (+12.10 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 96 of their last 150 games (+30.60 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 91 of their last 161 games (+24.20 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 100 of their last 147 games (+20.80 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 79 of their last 144 games (+14.30 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 81 games at home (+11.45 Units / 12% ROI)

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 86-79 against the Run Line (-4.4 Units / -2.03% ROI).

  • 92-73 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.85 Units / 2.68% ROI
  • 77-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.6 Units / -5.3% ROI
  • 80-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.85 Units / -2.11% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 86-77 against the Run Line (+9.95 Units / 5.17% ROI).

  • 107-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.3 Units / 5.66% ROI
  • 61-92 when betting on the total runs Over for -38.8 Units / -21.75% ROI
  • 92-61 when betting on the total runs Under for +24.2 Units / 13.39% ROI

Luis Castillo has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 13.1 innings pitched — Sam Hentges has the longest active streak at 24.1.

Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 48% (62 SO in 130 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .096 (11-for-114) against Luis Castillo’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .224 — 99th Percentile.

Luis Castillo has pitched 12.2 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Raisel Iglesias has the longest active streak at 25.0.

Framber Valdez: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (372/555) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (119/174) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 69% (539/783) against Framber Valdez since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (636/933) against Framber Valdez since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Mariners are 36-15 (.706) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mariners are 69-2 (.972) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Mariners are 8-65 (.110) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Mariners are 9-59 (.132) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.

The Astros are 86-8 (.915) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Astros are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .168 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

The Mariners are batting just .219 at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Mariners are batting just .129 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.

Mariners hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 321 strikeouts in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Astros hitters have just 2,401 strikeouts in 12,345 PA’s (19%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 12% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (14 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

The Astros have allowed 3.27 runs per game (265/81) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.

Astros vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
  • Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Julio Rodríguez (Mariners): Back, D10
  • Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Ryan Borucki (Mariners): Forearm, D15
  • Jesse Winker (Mariners): Neck, D10
  • Samuel Haggerty (Mariners): Groin, D10

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Astros vs Mariners and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.