- The Mariners are -110 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Alek Manoah
- Watch the game on SN1
The Seattle Mariners (-110) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-110) on Friday, April 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Mariners vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 11-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 15-10 ATS.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +150 | O 8.5 +100 | -110 |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -185 | U 8.5 -120 | -110 |
Mariners vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 63.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.15 Units / 45% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 24 games (+8.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- Kolten Wong has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+8.35 Units / 48% ROI)
- Kolten Wong has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+8.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.20 Units / 65% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- George Springer has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+12.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 26 games (+9.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+8.30 Units / 58% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+7.75 Units / 34% ROI)
Blue Jays vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Blue Jays vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Blue Jays vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Blue Jays vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alek Manoah | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
| Luis Castillo | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -105 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 22 games (+2.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 22 games (+2.00 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.80 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 away games (+1.50 Units / 15% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+7.80 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+7.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.15 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.10 Units / 56% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 11-14 against the Run Line (-3.95 Units / -12.15% ROI).
- 11-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.4 Units / -18.23% ROI
- 13-11 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.75 Units / 2.69% ROI
- 11-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.3 Units / -12.11% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 15-10 against the Run Line (+3.95 Units / 12.42% ROI).
- 16-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.95 Units / 13.27% ROI
- 9-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.3 Units / -23.2% ROI
- 14-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.8 Units / 13.62% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has allowed an OPS of just .431 (112 PA’s) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .702 — 98th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has allowed an OBP of just .214 (112 PA’s) this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .306 — 96th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has walked 1 of 55 right-handed batters (2%) this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 95th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has allowed an OBP of just .164 (55 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .306 — 100th Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Alek Manoah has walked 16 of 121 batters (13%) this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — seventh Percentile.
Alek Manoah has a strike rate of just 57% (146/255) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — fifth Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .168 (95-for-567) against Alek Manoah since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed batters batted just .159 (51-for-321) against Alek Manoah in 2022 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Mariners are just 9-4 (.692) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .872.
The Mariners are just 0-10 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .097.
The Mariners are just 2-6 (.250) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .585.
The Mariners are just 0-9 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .128.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Blue Jays are 2-9 (.182) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .040.
The Blue Jays are 20-18 (.526) as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .396.
The Blue Jays are 44-38 (.537) as underdogs since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Blue Jays are 2-8 (.200) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .097.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .169 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .264 (246 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Mariners hitters have drawn 209 walks in 2,027 PA’s (10%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners hitters have 23 extra-base hits out of 44 total hits (52%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have just 297 strikeouts in 1,516 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Blue Jays are batting .375 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Blue Jays hitters have just 47 strikeouts in 263 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging .665 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .572.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 25 of 436 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Mariners pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Mariners have won just just 0% of the time this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 500 of 7,016 batters (7%) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 12 of 221 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 104 of 1,676 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- George Springer (Blue Jays): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Rhomboid, D15
- Christopher Bassitt (Blue Jays): Back, Day-to-Day
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Undisclosed, D60
- Mitchell White (Blue Jays): Elbow, D15
- Taylor Trammell (Mariners): Hand, D10
- Andrés Muñoz (Mariners): Deltoid, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D15
- Dylan Moore (Mariners): Olique, D10
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
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