- The Braves are -135 favorites vs the Mariners
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert
- Braves starting pitcher: Jesse Chavez
- Watch the game on FOX
The Seattle Mariners (+115) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-135) on Saturday, May 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Mariners vs Braves Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 21-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 20-24 ATS.
Mariners vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -175 | O 9 +100 | +115 |
| Braves | -1.5 +145 | U 9 -120 | -135 |
Mariners vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 70.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 36 games (+17.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 36 games (+16.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 29 games (+12.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 24 of his last 36 games (+11.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 22 games (+9.35 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 41 games (+13.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 44 games (+10.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+9.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+8.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+8.85 Units / 36% ROI)
Braves vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Braves vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
Braves vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
Braves vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +125 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 14 away games (+3.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 20 away games (+2.90 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 17 away games (+2.80 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 away games (+2.40 Units / 15% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 44 games (+13.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 35 games (+11.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 44 games (+6.45 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games at home (+2.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 21-23 against the Run Line (-2.55 Units / -4.68% ROI).
- 21-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.85 Units / -12.63% ROI
- 21-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.7 Units / -7.48% ROI
- 22-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.85 Units / -1.79% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 20-24 against the Run Line (-3.2 Units / -6.23% ROI).
- 28-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.45 Units / 9.38% ROI
- 26-17 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.55 Units / 15.76% ROI
- 17-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.95 Units / -24.44% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OPS of just .196 (105 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .497 — 100th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .105 (105 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .061 (6-for-99) against Logan Gilbert with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .167 — 100th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed a slugging percentage of just .091 (9 Total Bases / 99 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .260 — 98th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 43% (36/83) against Jesse Chavez on fastballs since last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Jesse Chavez has allowed a slugging percentage of .705 (31 Total Bases / 44 ABs) on fastballs away since last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .349 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .469 (15-for-32) against Jesse Chavez on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .329 — fourth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 32% (41/129) against Jesse Chavez since last season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mariners are just 4-8 (.333) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .610.
The Mariners are 32-22 (.593) after a road win since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .491.
The Mariners are just 0-7 (.000) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
The Mariners are just 15-5 (.750) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Braves are 26-19 (.578) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .299.
The Braves are 8-7 (.533) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Braves are 14-5 (.737) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 13-5 (.722) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .228 (197 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.
Mariners hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Mariners hitters have drawn 224 walks in 2,197 PA’s (10%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners hitters have 19 extra-base hits out of 35 total hits (54%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .577 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .949 (525 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .747.
Braves hitters are slugging .298 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Braves hitters are slugging .477 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 116 of 1,641 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 21 of 434 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 47 of 901 batters (5%) over the last 30 days (25 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Mariners pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 25% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers have won 58% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have won 52% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Braves have won just 0% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Braves vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D15
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D15
- Andrés Muñoz (Mariners): Deltoid, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D15
- Dylan Moore (Mariners): Olique, D10
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
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