- The Mariners are -105 favorites vs the Braves
- Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby
- Braves starting pitcher: Jared Shuster
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Seattle Mariners (-105) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-115) on Sunday, May 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Mariners vs Braves Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 22-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 20-25 ATS.
Mariners vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +150 | O 9.5 -110 | -105 |
| Braves | +1.5 -185 | U 9.5 -110 | -115 |
Mariners vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 37 games (+18.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 37 games (+17.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 37 games (+12.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+10.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+10.30 Units / 63% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 42 games (+14.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 45 games (+11.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+9.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.85 Units / 40% ROI)
- Kevin Pillar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 8 games (+8.60 Units / 107% ROI)
Braves vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
Braves vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Braves vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Braves vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| George Kirby | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
| Jared Shuster | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 18 away games (+3.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 away games (+3.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 away games (+3.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 50% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 45 games (+12.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 36 games (+12.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games (+5.15 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.10 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 23 games (+1.90 Units / 7% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 22-23 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / -2.76% ROI).
- 22-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.75 Units / -10.69% ROI
- 22-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.7 Units / -5.33% ROI
- 22-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.85 Units / -3.81% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 20-25 against the Run Line (-4.2 Units / -8.02% ROI).
- 28-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.15 Units / 7.35% ROI
- 27-17 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.55 Units / 17.4% ROI
- 17-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.95 Units / -25.95% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
George Kirby has a strike rate of 72% (279/385) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 98th Percentile.
George Kirby’s K:BB ratio is 10.5 (21/2) vs left-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 2.5 — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 2 of 103 left-handed batters (2%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has a strike rate of 71% (525/741) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jared Shuster has limited playing time.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mariners are just 0-7 (.000) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .321.
The Mariners are just 2-10 (.167) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Mariners are just 4-8 (.333) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .611.
The Mariners are 2-18 (.100) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Braves are 26-19 (.578) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .300.
The Braves are 6-3 (.667) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .389.
The Braves are 24-1 (.960) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Braves are just 4-10 (.286) after a win as underdogs since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .228 (197 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .330.
The Mariners are batting just .187 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .169 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Mariners are batting just .308 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .577 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .949 (525 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .748.
Braves hitters are slugging .477 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .404.
The Braves have scored first in 76% of their games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 117 of 1,676 batters (7%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 48 of 936 batters (5%) over the last 30 days (26 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Mariners pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 19 of 432 batters (4%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 24% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 17% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have won 58% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D15
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D15
- Andrés Muñoz (Mariners): Deltoid, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D15
- Dylan Moore (Mariners): Olique, D10
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
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