- The Cubs are -120 favorites vs the Mariners
- Mariners starting pitcher: Christoper Flexen
- Cubs starting pitcher: Hayden Wesneski
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Seattle Mariners (+100) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-120) on Tuesday, April 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Mariners vs Cubs Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 4-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 5-4 ATS.
Mariners vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -185 | O 10.5 -110 | +100 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +150 | U 10.5 -110 | -120 |
Mariners vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Mitch Haniger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 away games (+4.40 Units / 84% ROI)
- Curt Casali has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 4 away games (+2.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- Dylan Moore has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.00 Units / 67% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Nick Madrigal has hit the Hits Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+0.90 Units / 18% ROI)
Cubs vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jarred Kelenic | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Cubs vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jarred Kelenic | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Cubs vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| RBis will Jarred Kelenic | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Cubs vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hayden Wesneski | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
| Chris Flexen | 3.5 +115 | 3.5 -155 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 2 of their last 3 games (+0.80 Units / 23% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.90 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.25 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.85 Units / 37% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 5-6 against the Run Line (-0.75 Units / -5.26% ROI).
- 4-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- 6-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.7 Units / 13.99% ROI
- 4-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.65 Units / -21.81% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 5-4 against the Run Line (+1.25 Units / 11.11% ROI).
- 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 9.66% ROI
- 5-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.5 Units / 5% ROI
- 4-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.55 Units / -15.74% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a miss rate of 65% (11/17) against Chris Flexen when he’s behind in the count this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of 33% (6/18) against Chris Flexen this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 15% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .309 (88-for-285) against Chris Flexen’s low curves and sliders since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: .187 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .400 (12-for-30) against Chris Flexen in close and late situations since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: .242 — fourth Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 13% (5/39) against Hayden Wesneski this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 29% — first Percentile.
Hayden Wesneski has allowed an OPS of 1.186 (20 PA’s) this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: .745 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .353 (6-for-17) against Hayden Wesneski this season — 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: .255 — eighth Percentile.
Hayden Wesneski has allowed a slugging percentage of .765 (13 Total Bases / 17 ABs) this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: .420 — second Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Mariners are 101-93 (.521) when underdogs since the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Mariners are 34-12 (.739) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners are 26-23 (.531) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
The Mariners were 26-23 (.531) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in 2022 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Cubs are just 33-21 (.611) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .809.
The Cubs are just 15-92 (.140) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Cubs are just 20-11 (.645) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Cubs are just 59-44 (.573) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .733.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .244 (86 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .333.
The Mariners are batting just .305 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Mariners hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting .341 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .409 (94 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
The Cubs have scored 9.00 runs per game (18/2) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.52.
Cubs hitters have grounded into 55 double plays in 394 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
The Cubs pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 42% of their games at home in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 49% with two-strikes this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 10 of 81 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): Oblique, D10
- Patrick Wisdom (Cubs): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D15
- Taylor Trammell (Mariners): Hand, D10
- Andrés Muñoz (Mariners): Deltoid, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D15
- Dylan Moore (Mariners): Olique, D10
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
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