- The Mariners are -115 favorites vs the Cubs
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert
- Cubs starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Seattle Mariners (-115) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-105) on Wednesday, April 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Mariners vs Cubs Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 4-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 6-4 ATS.
Mariners vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +135 | O 11 -115 | -115 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -160 | U 11 -105 | -105 |
Mariners vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ty France has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+9.90 Units / 82% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.95 Units / 64% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+8.60 Units / 78% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.50 Units / 77% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+7.65 Units / 80% ROI)
- Trey Mancini has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.50 Units / 61% ROI)
- Trey Mancini has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 53% ROI)
Cubs vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jarred Kelenic | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Cubs vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jarred Kelenic | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Cubs vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| RBis will Jarred Kelenic | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Cubs vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
| Marcus Stroman | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games (+0.45 Units / 5% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+5.50 Units / 78% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.25 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.10 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 76% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.85 Units / 44% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 5-7 against the Run Line (-2.55 Units / -15.89% ROI).
- 4-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.2 Units / -40.52% ROI
- 7-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.7 Units / 20.38% ROI
- 4-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.75 Units / -28.3% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 6-4 against the Run Line (+2.85 Units / 23.27% ROI).
- 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 17.32% ROI
- 6-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.5 Units / 13.51% ROI
- 4-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.65 Units / -24.2% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .476 (39-for-82) against Logan Gilbert on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .338 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 35% (92/259) against Logan Gilbert on changeups since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: 52% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of 28% (153/537) versus Logan Gilbert in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 59 of Logan Gilbert’s 296 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 20%) since the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 35% — second Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 73% (30/41) against Marcus Stroman — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has located his fastballs down 56% of the time (47/84) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 97th Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has allowed a slugging percentage of just .150 (3 Total Bases / 20 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .371 — 95th Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has a strike rate of just 59% (105/179) this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — fourth Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Mariners are 101-93 (.521) when underdogs since the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Mariners are 34-12 (.739) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners were 17-35 (.327) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Mariners were 26-23 (.531) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in 2022 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Cubs are just 33-21 (.611) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .809.
The Cubs are just 15-92 (.140) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Cubs were just 19-11 (.633) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Cubs were just 29-24 (.547) when totaling 10 or more hits in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .169 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .311 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Mariners hitters chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
The Mariners are batting just .305 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting .341 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .409 (94 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Cubs hitters slugged just .185 in lefty-lefty matchups in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .347.
Cubs hitters have grounded into 55 double plays in 394 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 14 of 112 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,174 of 12,750 batters (9%) since the 2021 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 42% of their games since the 2021 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed the 28th hardest ball in play hit (119.8 MPH) in 2022 (; League Avg: 117.3).
Cubs vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): Oblique, D10
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Dansby Swanson (Cubs): Side, Day-to-Day
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D15
- Taylor Trammell (Mariners): Hand, D10
- Andrés Muñoz (Mariners): Deltoid, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D15
- Dylan Moore (Mariners): Olique, D10
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
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