- The Mariners are -130 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Thomas Henry
- Watch the game on ARID
The Seattle Mariners (-130) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+110) on Friday, July 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Mariners vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 52-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 57-46 ATS.
Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +125 | O 9 -110 | -130 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -150 | U 9 -110 | +110 |
Mariners vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 63.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+11.40 Units / 56% ROI)
- Tom Murphy has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+10.85 Units / 72% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+10.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.85 Units / 44% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 37 games (+9.65 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+15.45 Units / 64% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 24 games (+14.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+13.25 Units / 70% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+11.15 Units / 42% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+11.05 Units / 21% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
Diamondbacks vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Diamondbacks vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Diamondbacks vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
| Tommy Henry | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 26 games (+5.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 50 games (+3.00 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.45 Units / 14% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 102 games (+8.95 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 42 games at home (+8.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 100 games (+7.90 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 42 games at home (+6.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+6.25 Units / 52% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 48-54 against the Run Line (-9.4 Units / -7.09% ROI).
- 52-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.8 Units / -8.82% ROI
- 51-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -3 Units / -2.65% ROI
- 49-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.65 Units / -5.96% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 57-46 against the Run Line (+6.4 Units / 4.91% ROI).
- 55-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.95 Units / 6.19% ROI
- 47-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.45 Units / -7.35% ROI
- 50-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.45 Units / -0.4% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .229 against Logan Gilbert on the first pitch of at-bats this season — third best among qualified SPs– 96th Percentile. Opponents batted .476 (39-for-82) against him on the first pitch of at-bats last season — worst among qualified SPs– second Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .169 (130 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .291 — 100th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has thrown elevated pitches 43% of the time (529/1,242) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 97th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OPS of just .363 (258 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .505 — 96th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tommy Henry has allowed three-ball counts to 19% of batters they faced (82/429 PA’s) against right-handed batters since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 10% — second Percentile.
Tommy Henry has struck out just 17% (74/429) of right-handed batters he faced since last season — tied for 14th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 12th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 23% (21/92) against Tommy Henry with two-strikes this season — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 36% — 97th Percentile.
Tommy Henry has a strikeout rate of just 15% (12 SO in 78 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 15th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 12th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Mariners are 110-5 (.957) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Mariners are 25-3 (.893) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Mariners are 32-3 (.914) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Mariners are 65-9 (.878) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Diamondbacks are just 111-12 (.902) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Diamondbacks are just 28-14 (.667) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Diamondbacks are just 100-19 (.840) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Diamondbacks are just 48-6 (.889) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .120 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .167 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Mariners are batting just .111 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Mariners are batting just .226 at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 2% of PA’s since last season (184/9,722) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3%.
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Diamondbacks have scored 1.51 runs per game (399/264) in late innings since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 1.31.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 267 of 3,788 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 718 of 9,818 batters (7%) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have an ERA of 7.22 (101.0 IP) over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.56.
Diamondbacks vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Gabriel Moreno (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D10
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Back, D15
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Allen Pollock (Mariners): Hamstring, D10
- John Crawford (Mariners): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Jarred Kelenic (Mariners): Foot, D10
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