- The Mariners are -120 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Mariners starting pitcher: Bryan Woo
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt
- Watch the game on ARID
The Seattle Mariners (-120) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+100) on Saturday, July 29, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Mariners vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 53-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 57-47 ATS.
Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +135 | O 9 +100 | -120 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -165 | U 9 -120 | +100 |
Mariners vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 65.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+11.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 38 games (+10.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+10.40 Units / 49% ROI)
- Tom Murphy has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.35 Units / 45% ROI)
- Tom Murphy has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.35 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+15.85 Units / 44% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+14.45 Units / 57% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+14.25 Units / 71% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+13.25 Units / 48% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+10.20 Units / 37% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Diamondbacks vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +110 |
Diamondbacks vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Diamondbacks vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
| Bryan Woo | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 11 away games (+7.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games (+6.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+5.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 24 games (+3.40 Units / 12% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 43 games at home (+9.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 103 games (+7.95 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 43 games at home (+7.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.25 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 101 games (+6.50 Units / 5% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 49-54 against the Run Line (-8.2 Units / -6.14% ROI).
- 53-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.8 Units / -8.05% ROI
- 51-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.15 Units / -3.63% ROI
- 50-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.65 Units / -5.02% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 57-47 against the Run Line (+5 Units / 3.8% ROI).
- 55-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.95 Units / 5.37% ROI
- 47-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.6 Units / -8.27% ROI
- 51-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.55 Units / 0.49% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryan Woo has thrown fastballs 76% of the time (565/743) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .106 (5-for-47) against Bryan Woo over the last 30 days (4 games) — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 98th Percentile.
76% of Bryan Woo’s strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Bryan Woo has allowed an OPS of just .330 (50 PA’s) against right-handed batters over the last 30 days (4 games) — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .674 — 98th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Pfaadt has not walked any of the 24 batters that he has faced over the past seven days (1 games) — tied for best in NL over the last week; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt had a strike rate of 74% (66/89) — 3rd highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — 97th Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed an OBP of just .208 (24 PA’s) over the past seven days (1 games) — tied for 8th best in NL over the last week; League Avg: .297 — 87th Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has a strike rate of 74% (66/89) over the past seven days (1 games) — 2nd highest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Mariners are 33-3 (.917) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Mariners are 66-9 (.880) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Mariners are 111-5 (.957) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Mariners are 15-1 (.938) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .787.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Diamondbacks are just 111-12 (.902) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Diamondbacks are just 100-19 (.840) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Diamondbacks are just 28-14 (.667) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Diamondbacks are just 93-23 (.802) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .871.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .314 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
The Mariners are batting just .120 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
The Mariners are batting just .112 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Mariners are batting just .226 at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 2% of PA’s since last season (184/9,722) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .302 (2,729 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging just .489 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .593.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .778 (1,276 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 270 of 3,828 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have a strike rate of 67% this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Opponents have a swing rate of 50% against the Mariners pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have an ERA of 7.15 (102.0 IP) over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.51.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Gabriel Moreno (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D10
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Back, D15
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Allen Pollock (Mariners): Hamstring, D10
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Jarred Kelenic (Mariners): Foot, D10
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