- The Diamondbacks are -120 favorites vs the Mariners
- Mariners starting pitcher: Marco Gonzales, 18.00 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly
The Seattle Mariners (+100) visit Salt River Fields at Talking Stick to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-120) on Friday, March 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10pm EST in Scottsdale.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Mariners vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Mariners are 2-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 2-2 ATS.
Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -185 | O 10.5 +100 | +100 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +150 | U 10.5 -120 | -120 |
Mariners vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Friday‘s Spring Training matchup with 60.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Mitch Haniger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 away games (+4.40 Units / 84% ROI)
- Justin Upton has hit the RBIs Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Curt Casali has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 4 away games (+2.30 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Seth Beer has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Carson Kelly has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 94% ROI)
- Jordan Luplow has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Cooper Hummel has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Nick Ahmed has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+2.80 Units / 93% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 57 away games (+15.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 55 away games (+14.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 32 away games (+13.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 39 away games (+13.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 63 away games (+11.90 Units / 17% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 61 of their last 84 games (+41.60 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 69 of their last 151 games (+34.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 89 of their last 151 games (+24.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+10.60 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 39 of their last 69 games (+8.20 Units / 11% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 1-4 against the Run Line (-4.1 Units / -61.19% ROI).
- 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.15 Units / -33.08% ROI
- 2-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.45 Units / -36.03% ROI
- 4-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.9 Units / 29.46% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 2-2 against the Run Line (-0.6 Units / -10.91% ROI).
- 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -24.69% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.25 Units / -5.56% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.15 Units / -3.49% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marco Gonzales has allowed a slugging percentage of .727 (64 Total Bases / 88 ABs) on low fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .424 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a two strike miss rate of just 16% (83/532) against Marco Gonzales last season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (1,540/3,626) in non-two strike counts since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 18% (265/1,446) against Marco Gonzales last season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — fourth Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted just .124 (47-for-380) against Merrill Kelly with two-strikes last season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .156 — 95th Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has located his pitches away 55% of the time (695/1,254) when behind in the count since the start of the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Merrill Kelly had a strike rate of 70% (608/864) in two strike counts last season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 93rd Percentile.
32% of Merrill Kelly’s strikeouts were looking last season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 91st Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Mariners are 41-11 (.788) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Mariners are 9-59 (.132) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Mariners are 69-1 (.986) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Mariners are 62-10 (.861) when scoring 5 or more runs last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Diamondbacks are just 122-24 (.836) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Diamondbacks are just 111-36 (.755) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Diamondbacks are just 57-12 (.826) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Diamondbacks are just 33-184 (.152) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .168 on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .310 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
The Mariners are batting just .305 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
The Mariners are batting just .129 on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have a winning percentage of just 33% on the road since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Diamondbacks hitters chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against LHP last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Diamondbacks hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 35% against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Diamondbacks hitters had an OPS of just .655 (1,689 PA’s) against LHP last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mariners pitchers have won 36% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Arizona Diamondbacks – No Injuries Reported
- Seattle Mariners – No Injuries Reported
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