- The Giants are -120 favorites vs the Mariners
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert
- Giants starting pitcher: Keaton Winn
- Watch the game on NBCS-BA
The Seattle Mariners (+100) visit Oracle Park to take on the San Francisco Giants (-120) on Tuesday, July 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:35pm EDT in San Francisco.
The Giants are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Mariners vs Giants Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 41-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Giants are 44-41 ATS.
Mariners vs. Giants Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -200 | O 8.5 -115 | +100 |
| Giants | -1.5 +165 | U 8.5 -105 | -120 |
Mariners vs Giants Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Giants will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 59.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Giants and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ty France has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 35 games (+12.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 24 away games (+10.35 Units / 40% ROI)
- George Kirby has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 46 games (+9.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.05 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Giants Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Casey Schmitt has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+13.00 Units / 66% ROI)
- Logan Webb has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+11.35 Units / 58% ROI)
- Casey Schmitt has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.35 Units / 53% ROI)
- Joc Pederson has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+11.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Casey Schmitt has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+10.15 Units / 74% ROI)
Giants vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Brandon Crawford | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Giants vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Crawford | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Giants vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Brandon Crawford | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Giants vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +100 |
| Winn | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -140 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.10 Units / 1% ROI)
Giants Best Bets Today:
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 games (+11.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games at home (+8.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 66 games (+8.45 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 38 games (+8.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 42 of their last 75 games (+4.00 Units / 4% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 38-45 against the Run Line (-11.25 Units / -10.4% ROI).
- 41-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.2 Units / -10.94% ROI
- 43-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.95 Units / 1.03% ROI
- 38-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -9 Units / -9.93% ROI
Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Giants have gone 44-41 against the Run Line (+0.55 Units / 0.49% ROI).
- 46-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.95 Units / 0.9% ROI
- 40-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.3 Units / -6.71% ROI
- 42-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.55 Units / -1.66% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .259 against Logan Gilbert on the first pitch of at-bats this season — fourth best among qualified SPs– 94th Percentile. Opponents batted .476 (39-for-82) against him on the first pitch of at-bats last season — worst among qualified SPs– second Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .159 (201 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 100th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has thrown elevated pitches 44% of the time (378/866) when behind in the count since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OPS of just .329 (201 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .497 — 96th Percentile.
Giants Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Hendricks has averaged 86.7 MPH on fastballs in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 69% (31/45) against Kyle Hendricks on low fastballs in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 51% — first Percentile.
Opponents batted just .120 (6-for-50) against Kyle Hendricks on fastballs away in 2022 — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .240 — 97th Percentile.
Keaton Winn has walked 1 of 30 left-handed batters (3%) over the last 30 days (4 games) — 8th best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — 92nd Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Giants
The Mariners are just 3-20 (.130) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.
The Mariners are 60-9 (.870) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Mariners are 101-5 (.953) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Mariners are 8-101 (.073) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .047.
Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Giants are 40-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Giants are 30-24 (.556) after a win as underdogs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Giants are 34-23 (.596) after a road win since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .491.
The Giants are 13-7 (.650) after a road win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .488.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .121 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .278 (370 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .327.
The Mariners are batting just .315 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Mariners hitters have 211 strikeouts in 805 PA’s (26%) against LHP this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Giants Hitting Stats & Trends
Giants hitters have 30 strikeouts in 81 PA’s (37%) against LHP over the last 14 days (9 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Giants hitters have 715 strikeouts in 2,810 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Giants hitters have 236 strikeouts in 878 PA’s (27%) against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Giants hitters have an OPS of .863 (270 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 220 of 3,087 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 671 of 9,117 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have a strike rate of 67% this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Giants Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Giants pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Giants pitchers have walked 234 of 3,205 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Giants pitchers since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Giants vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Roberto Pérez (Giants): Shoulder, D60
- Heliot Ramos (Giants): Oblique, D60
- John Brebbia (Giants): Lat, D15
- Anthony DeSclafani (Giants): Shoulder, D15
- Mitchell Haniger (Giants): Forearm, D60
- Luis González (Giants): Back, D60
- Thomas Szapucki (Giants): Arm, D60
- Thairo Estrada (Giants): Hand, D10
- Luke Jackson (Giants): Back, D15
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D15
- Bryce Miller (Mariners): Finger, D15
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
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