Mariners vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 4

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 04, 2022, 8:43 AM
  • The Mariners (75-58) are -130 favorites vs the Guardians (68-63)
  • Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby (6-3), 3.15 ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill (11-5), 3.50 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSGL

The Seattle Mariners (-130) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+105) on Sunday, September 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:40pm EDT in Cleveland.

The Mariners are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Mariners vs Guardians Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mariners are 74-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 68-62 ATS.

Mariners vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mariners-1.5 +135O 7.5 -110-130
Guardians +1.5 -160U 7.5 -110+105

Mariners vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s matchup with 51.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Mariners and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 42 of his last 53 away games (+24.15 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 36 of his last 53 away games (+13.70 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Adam Frazier has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+13.60 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Adam Frazier has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 away games (+13.60 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+13.20 Units / 41% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 26 games (+17.50 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 35 games at home (+15.80 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Owen Miller has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+12.40 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.35 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 51 games (+11.60 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 53 games (+11.35 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 41 of their last 74 games (+10.80 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.55 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games (+7.15 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 91 games (+1.45 Units / 1% ROI)

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 70-60 against the Run Line (+1.3 Units / 0.75% ROI).

  • 74-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.35 Units / 9.47% ROI
  • 59-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.5 Units / -7.36% ROI
  • 64-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.5 Units / -0.35% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 68-62 against the Run Line (+0.6 Units / 0.37% ROI).

  • 68-62 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.45 Units / 4% ROI
  • 55-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.45 Units / -12.2% ROI
  • 66-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.6 Units / 3.91% ROI

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .386 (54 GB hits out of 140 GBs) against George Kirby this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: .234 — 0 Percentile.

George Kirby has a strike rate of 76% (125/164) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .314 (54-for-172) against George Kirby’s non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: .227 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .323 (43-for-133) against George Kirby’s curve and slider this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: .223 — first Percentile.

Cal Quantrill: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 15% (98/641) against Cal Quantrill this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.

Cal Quantrill has a strikeout rate of just 32% (98 SO in 306 PAs) with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.

28 of Cal Quantrill’s 91 breaking pitch strikeouts (31%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 96th Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 18% (71/396) against Cal Quantrill this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — ninth Percentile.

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Mariners are 57-1 (.983) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Mariners are 15-1 (.938) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

The Mariners are 8-46 (.148) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .115.

The Mariners are 32-14 (.696) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Guardians are 11-55 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Guardians are 39-5 (.886) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .722.

The Guardians are 47-2 (.959) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Guardians are 17-2 (.895) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

The Mariners are batting just .305 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .164 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .168 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Mariners hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .333 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .980 (2,041 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.084.

Guardians hitters have just 640 strikeouts in 3,665 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mariners pitchers have walked 17 of 427 batters (4%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 72 of 1,166 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .197 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .220 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Guardians vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Aaron Civale (Guardians): Forearm, D15
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
  • Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15
  • Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Dylan Moore (Mariners): Oblique, D10
  • Ryan Borucki (Mariners): Forearm, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.