- The Mariners (75-58) are -130 favorites vs the Guardians (68-63)
- Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby (6-3), 3.15 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill (11-5), 3.50 ERA
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Seattle Mariners (-130) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+105) on Sunday, September 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:40pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Mariners are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Mariners vs Guardians Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mariners are 74-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 68-62 ATS.
Mariners vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +135 | O 7.5 -110 | -130 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -160 | U 7.5 -110 | +105 |
Mariners vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s matchup with 51.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 42 of his last 53 away games (+24.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 36 of his last 53 away games (+13.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+13.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 away games (+13.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+13.20 Units / 41% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 26 games (+17.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 35 games at home (+15.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+12.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.35 Units / 44% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 51 games (+11.60 Units / 22% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 53 games (+11.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 41 of their last 74 games (+10.80 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.55 Units / 35% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games (+7.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 91 games (+1.45 Units / 1% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 70-60 against the Run Line (+1.3 Units / 0.75% ROI).
- 74-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.35 Units / 9.47% ROI
- 59-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.5 Units / -7.36% ROI
- 64-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.5 Units / -0.35% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 68-62 against the Run Line (+0.6 Units / 0.37% ROI).
- 68-62 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.45 Units / 4% ROI
- 55-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.45 Units / -12.2% ROI
- 66-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.6 Units / 3.91% ROI
George Kirby: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .386 (54 GB hits out of 140 GBs) against George Kirby this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: .234 — 0 Percentile.
George Kirby has a strike rate of 76% (125/164) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .314 (54-for-172) against George Kirby’s non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: .227 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .323 (43-for-133) against George Kirby’s curve and slider this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: .223 — first Percentile.
Cal Quantrill: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 15% (98/641) against Cal Quantrill this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has a strikeout rate of just 32% (98 SO in 306 PAs) with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
28 of Cal Quantrill’s 91 breaking pitch strikeouts (31%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 18% (71/396) against Cal Quantrill this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — ninth Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Mariners are 57-1 (.983) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Mariners are 15-1 (.938) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Mariners are 8-46 (.148) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Mariners are 32-14 (.696) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Guardians are 11-55 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Guardians are 39-5 (.886) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
The Guardians are 47-2 (.959) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Guardians are 17-2 (.895) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .305 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .164 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .168 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Mariners hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters are slugging just .333 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .980 (2,041 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.084.
Guardians hitters have just 640 strikeouts in 3,665 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 17 of 427 batters (4%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 72 of 1,166 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .197 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .220 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Guardians vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Forearm, D15
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
- Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Dylan Moore (Mariners): Oblique, D10
- Ryan Borucki (Mariners): Forearm, D15
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