• The Mariners are -155 favorites vs the Marlins
• Mariners vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Mariners / Marlins TV Channel: MRTV | MATV

The Seattle Mariners (-155) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+125) on July 9, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 pm in Miami, FL.

This season, the Mariners are 47-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 51-41 ATS.

Mariners vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Mariners starting pitcher: Bryce Miller 4-2, 1.71 ERA
• Marlins starting pitcher: Janson Junk 3-5, 4.80 ERA

Mariners vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Mariners vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 57.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:

• J.P. Crawford has hit the Walks Under in 18 of his last 20 away games (+15.35 Units / 52% ROI)
• Luke Raley has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.55 Units / 35% ROI)
• Cole Young has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 away games (+10.00 Units / 125% ROI)
• Colt Emerson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.65 Units / 52% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.45 Units / 33% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Owen Caissie has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games at home (+20.60 Units / 229% ROI)
• Kyle Stowers has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+15.60 Units / 42% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+13.85 Units / 38% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+11.55 Units / 46% ROI)
• Liam Hicks has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.10 Units / 64% ROI)

Mariners Best Bets Today:

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 50 away games (+10.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.15 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 away games (+4.55 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.30 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.70 Units / 14% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 40 games (+17.10 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 35 games (+15.30 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.40 Units / 44% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+10.05 Units / 47% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+9.25 Units / 72% ROI)

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 38-55 against the Run Line (-7.8 Units / -7.8% ROI).

• 47-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.6 Units / -9.91% ROI
• 44-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.4 Units / -6.24% ROI
• 46-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.15 Units / -2.1% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 51-41 against the Run Line (+6.65 Units / 5.39% ROI).

• 51-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.4 Units / 9.51% ROI
• 50-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.55 Units / 5.38% ROI
• 40-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.6 Units / -14.39% ROI

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Mariners are just 1-40 (.024) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.

The Mariners are just 1-36 (.027) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .098.

The Mariners are 27-15 (.643) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mariners were 9-55 (.141) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .090.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Marlins are 27-4 (.871) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .750.

The Marlins are 42-9 (.824) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

The Marlins are 30-17 (.638) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .523.

The Marlins are 29-21 (.580) after a win this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .515.

Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends

The Mariners are batting just .208 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .328 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Mariners hitters have an OPS of just .621 (976 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Mariners hitters have 48 extra-base hits out of 178 total hits (just 27%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters have an OBP of .264 (1,778 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Marlins are batting .257 on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have put 40% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for highest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of .333 (2,626 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB.

Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends

Mariners pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB.

Mariners pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — best in MLB.

Mariners pitchers have a first-pitch strike rate of 66% this season — highest in MLB.

The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

The Marlins have allowed 3.53 runs per game (166/47) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Marlins have won just 10% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 3.29 (426.2 IP) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Opponents are hitting just .229 against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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