- The Mariners are -115 favorites vs the Mets
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert
- Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The Seattle Mariners (-115) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-105) on Friday, September 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Mariners vs Mets Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 76-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 54-79 ATS.
Mariners vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +150 | O 7.5 -110 | -115 |
| Mets | +1.5 -185 | U 7.5 -110 | -105 |
Mariners vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 58.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 47 games (+12.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 43 games (+12.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 41 games (+11.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 17 away games (+11.30 Units / 50% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+10.90 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+12.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+10.40 Units / 79% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+9.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.65 Units / 19% ROI)
Mets vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Cade Marlowe | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Mauricio | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Mets vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Cade Marlowe | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Mauricio | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
Mets vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -400 |
| Cade Marlowe | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Mauricio | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
Mets vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga | 6.5 -155 | 6.5 +120 |
| Logan Gilbert | 6.5 +125 | 6.5 -160 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 53 games (+18.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 27 away games (+13.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 32 games (+11.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 23 games (+9.93 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 35 of their last 57 games (+8.45 Units / 12% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 45 games at home (+11.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games at home (+9.82 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+7.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.33 Units / 31% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 68-65 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 0.59% ROI).
- 76-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.95 Units / 1% ROI
- 67-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.45 Units / -1.66% ROI
- 63-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -10 Units / -6.88% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 54-79 against the Run Line (-35.4 Units / -21.03% ROI).
- 60-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -31.5 Units / -17.77% ROI
- 54-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -28 Units / -19.2% ROI
- 74-54 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.6 Units / 10.09% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .179 (335 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 98th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has walked 28 of 620 batters (4%) this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 92nd Percentile.
Opponents batted .476 (39-for-82) against Logan Gilbert on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .338 — second Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .187 (171 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .286 — 100th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kodai Senga has walked 30 of 298 right-handed batters (10%) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 52% (191/365) against Kodai Senga on non-fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Kodai Senga has a strikeout rate of 53% (88 SO in 167 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 97th Percentile.
Kodai Senga has a first-pitch strike rate of just 45% (23/51) — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Mariners are 12-6 (.667) after a win as underdogs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .435.
The Mariners are 24-1 (.960) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .791.
The Mariners are 128-5 (.962) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Mariners are 60-4 (.938) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .896.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Mets are just 2-61 (.032) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Mets are just 5-34 (.128) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Mets are just 15-24 (.385) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are 141-8 (.946) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .906.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Mariners are batting just .117 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Mariners are batting just .122 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Mariners hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have been successful on 71% of their hit & run attempts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Mets are batting just .235 against LHP this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Mets are batting just .228 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Games involving the Mets went UNDER in 73% of their games (41.9% ROI) after a home win this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 778 of 10,942 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mariners pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 69% of opposing batters this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 327 of 4,912 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 59% of their games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Leg, D10
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraines, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Pec, D60
- Joshua Walker (Mets): Oblique, D60
- Emerson Hancock (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Julio Rodríguez (Mariners): Foot, Day-to-Day
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Thumb, D10
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- George Kirby (Mariners): Illness, Day-to-Day
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Jarred Kelenic (Mariners): Foot, D10
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