Mariners vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 12, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Mariners (45-42) are -110 favorites vs the Nationals (30-58)
  • Mariners starting pitcher: Christoper Flexen (5-8), 4.00 ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray (7-5), 4.13 ERA
  • Watch the game on MASN2

The Seattle Mariners (-110) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-110) on Tuesday, July 12, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.

The Mariners are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Mariners vs Nationals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mariners are 45-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 37-51 ATS.

Mariners vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mariners-1.5 +140O 9 +100-110
Nationals +1.5 -165U 9 -120-110

Mariners vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 59.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 24 away games (+16.25 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+8.65 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Julio Rodriguez has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.30 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Jesse Winker has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 33 away games (+8.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • J.P. Crawford has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 18 away games (+7.95 Units / 40% ROI)

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.10 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.65 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+6.75 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Nelson Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.30 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Victor Robles has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 42% ROI)

Nationals vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Josh Bell 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
Juan Soto 0.5 +375 0.5 -650
Keibert Ruiz 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Lane Thomas 0.5 +375 0.5 -650

Nationals vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Josh Bell 1.5 +180 1.5 -275
Juan Soto 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Keibert Ruiz 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Lane Thomas 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
Maikel Franco 0.5 -200 0.5 +135

Nationals vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Josh Bell 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Juan Soto 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Keibert Ruiz 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Lane Thomas 0.5 +170 0.5 -250

Nationals vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Josiah Gray 4.5 -140 4.5 -105
Chris Flexen 3.5 +125 3.5 -175
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 19 games (+13.25 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 13 away games (+9.55 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+8.15 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 away games (+7.10 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 12 away games (+6.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 44 of their last 75 games (+13.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.60 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.75 Units / 14% ROI)

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 45-42 against the Run Line (-2.75 Units / -2.36% ROI).

  • 45-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.05 Units / 2.95% ROI
  • 41-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -7 Units / -7.35% ROI
  • 44-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.45 Units / -1.5% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 37-51 against the Run Line (-22.1 Units / -20.25% ROI).

  • 30-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.85 Units / -20.44% ROI
  • 43-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.2 Units / -2.25% ROI
  • 41-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.75 Units / -5.98% ROI

Chris Flexen has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 54% (141/260) of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.

Chris Flexen has a strike rate of just 60% (489/810) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (96/288) against Chris Flexen this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fifth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .267 (94-for-352) against Chris Flexen this season — tied for 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 16th Percentile.

Josiah Gray: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 28% (63/228) against Josiah Gray this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.

Josiah Gray has walked 23 of 159 left-handed batters (14%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.

Josiah Gray has a strike rate of just 57% (377/663) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — fourth Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 29% (39/132) against Josiah Gray this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Mariners are 32-6 (.842) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .792.

The Mariners are 33-1 (.971) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .888.

The Mariners are 33-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Mariners are 25-5 (.833) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Nationals are just 9-53 (.145) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.

The Nationals are just 14-31 (.311) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .522.

The Nationals are just 6-149 (.039) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .125.

The Nationals are just 101-16 (.863) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

Mariners hitters have an OPS of 1.059 (55 PA’s) against LHP this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .709.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .162 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Mariners hitters have drawn 99 walks in 878 PA’s (11%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Mariners are batting .396 against LHP this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 31% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 246 double plays in 1,849 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Nationals hitters have an OBP of .342 (2,914 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .320.

Nationals hitters have just 581 strikeouts in 2,914 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Mariners pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Mariners pitchers have walked 4 of 110 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.74 (364.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.

The Nationals have allowed 5.67 runs per game (244/43) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.35.

The Nationals have won just 19% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Nationals vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
  • Reed Garrett (Nationals): Biceps, D15
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Taylor Trammell (Mariners): Hamstring, D10
  • Kyle Lewis (Mariners): Concussion, D7
  • Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Evan White (Mariners): Hernia, D60
  • Kenneth Giles (Mariners): Shoulder, D15
  • Mitchell Haniger (Mariners): Ankle, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.