Mariners vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 04, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Padres (47-34) are -175 favorites vs the Mariners (39-42)
  • Mariners starting pitcher: Christoper Flexen (4-8), 4.32 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Sean Manaea (3-3), 3.91 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSD

The Seattle Mariners (+145) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-175) on Monday, July 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).

The Mariners vs Padres Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mariners are 39-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 42-39 ATS.

Mariners vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mariners+1.5 -140O 8 -115+145
Padres -1.5 +115U 8 -105-175

Mariners vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s matchup with 57.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Padres vs Mariners and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 22 away games (+16.85 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Jesse Winker has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 33 away games (+8.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • J.P. Crawford has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 16 away games (+7.95 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+7.15 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 21 away games (+6.80 Units / 21% ROI)

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.40 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.80 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.65 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+6.50 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+6.05 Units / 67% ROI)

Padres vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eric Hosmer 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Jurickson Profar 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Luke Voit 0.5 +170 0.5 -250

Padres vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eric Hosmer 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Jurickson Profar 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Luke Voit 0.5 -275 0.5 +180

Padres vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eric Hosmer 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Jurickson Profar 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Luke Voit 0.5 -115 0.5 -120

Padres vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Sean Manaea 5.5 -165 5.5 +120
Chris Flexen 3.5 -115 3.5 -115
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.50 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games (+9.00 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 away games (+8.40 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 11 away games (+7.55 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.85 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games at home (+9.45 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 31 of their last 56 games (+8.15 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 80 games (+7.30 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 80 games (+3.35 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.75 Units / 32% ROI)

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 40-41 against the Run Line (-6.75 Units / -6.29% ROI).

  • 39-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.85 Units / -3.97% ROI
  • 37-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.95 Units / -10.04% ROI
  • 42-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.35 Units / 1.51% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 42-39 against the Run Line (+2.35 Units / 2.29% ROI).

  • 47-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.9 Units / 5.34% ROI
  • 35-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.85 Units / -14.51% ROI
  • 44-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.5 Units / 6.11% ROI

Chris Flexen has a strike rate of just 60% (463/765) against right-handed batters this season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — fourth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .248 (51-for-206) against Chris Flexen’s non-fastballs this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .215 — 16th Percentile.

Chris Flexen has a strikeout rate of just 16% (58 SO in 361 PAs) this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — eighth Percentile.

Chris Flexen has walked 17 of 151 left-handed batters (11%) this season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 11th Percentile.

Sean Manaea: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .093 (15-for-162) against Sean Manaea with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .162 — 100th Percentile.

Sean Manaea has walked 14 of 100 batters (14%) versus the bottom of the order this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .124 (11-for-89) against Sean Manaea’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .225 — 98th Percentile.

Sean Manaea has walked 31 of 345 batters (9%) this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 14th Percentile.

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Mariners are 6-4 (.600) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mariners are just 6-18 (.250) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.

The Mariners are 29-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .920.

The Mariners are just 12-36 (.250) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Padres are 6-23 (.207) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .106.

The Padres are 7-5 (.583) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Padres are just 34-6 (.850) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .894.

The Padres are 13-4 (.765) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .719.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .162 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.

The Mariners are batting just .305 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .167 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

The Mariners are batting just .220 at home since the start of 2020 — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,294 of their 3,899 plate appearances (33%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Padres hitters are slugging just .382 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

The Padres are batting just .225 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

The Padres are batting .360 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .337.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Mariners pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 23% with runners in scoring position this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Padres pitchers have walked 44 of 730 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Padres have won 55% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Padres have won just just 0% of the time at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 456.5

Padres vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Adrian Morejon (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D15
  • Steven Wilson (Padres): Hamstring, D15
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Luis Torrens (Mariners): Shoulder, D10
  • Taylor Trammell (Mariners): Hamstring, D10
  • Kyle Lewis (Mariners): Concussion, D7
  • Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Evan White (Mariners): Hernia, D60
  • Mitchell Haniger (Mariners): Ankle, D60
  • Tyler France (Mariners): Elbow, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.