Mariners vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 5

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 05, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Padres (47-35) are -140 favorites vs the Mariners (40-42)
  • Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert (9-3), 2.66 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Michael Clevinger (2-0), 2.79 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Seattle Mariners (+115) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-140) on Tuesday, July 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Mariners vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mariners are 40-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 42-40 ATS.

Mariners vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mariners+1.5 -190O 7.5 -120+115
Padres -1.5 +155U 7.5 +100-140

Mariners vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 71.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 23 away games (+17.85 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+8.30 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Jesse Winker has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 33 away games (+8.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+8.00 Units / 89% ROI)
  • Julio Rodriguez has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.65 Units / 48% ROI)

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.40 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.80 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+7.70 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 18 games (+6.90 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.85 Units / 27% ROI)

Padres vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
C.J. Abrams 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Eric Hosmer 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Jurickson Profar 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400

Padres vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
C.J. Abrams 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Eric Hosmer 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Jurickson Profar 0.5 -200 0.5 +145

Padres vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
C.J. Abrams 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Eric Hosmer 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Jurickson Profar 0.5 +220 0.5 -350

Padres vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Logan Gilbert 4.5 -145 4.5 +100
Mike Clevinger 5.5 -115 5.5 -120
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 away games (+10.00 Units / 66% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+9.50 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 12 away games (+8.55 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games (+7.80 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 away games (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+8.25 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 31 of their last 57 games (+8.15 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 81 games (+5.50 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 81 games (+2.35 Units / 2% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.40 Units / 14% ROI)

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 41-41 against the Run Line (-5.75 Units / -5.29% ROI).

  • 40-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.25 Units / -2.29% ROI
  • 38-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.95 Units / -8.82% ROI
  • 42-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.15 Units / 0.17% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 42-40 against the Run Line (+1.35 Units / 1.31% ROI).

  • 47-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.1 Units / 3.65% ROI
  • 36-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.85 Units / -13.23% ROI
  • 44-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.3 Units / 4.71% ROI

Left-handed batters are hitting just .175 (27-for-154) against Logan Gilbert this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — 93rd Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .412 (14-for-34) against Logan Gilbert on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .327 — 12th Percentile.

Logan Gilbert has allowed an OPS of just .482 (167 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .681 — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 36% (16/44) against Logan Gilbert with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.

Michael Clevinger: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Mike Clevinger allowed an OPS of just .153 (21 PA’s) — best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .654 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents batted just .053 (1-for-19) against Mike Clevinger — tied for 3rd best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .226 — 98th Percentile.

Mike Clevinger has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 8.0 innings pitched — Lucas Gilbreath has the longest active streak at 22.0.

Opponents had a chase percentage of 43% (20/47) against Mike Clevinger — 6th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 30% — 95th Percentile.

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Mariners are just 12-36 (.250) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Mariners are 31-1 (.969) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .893.

The Mariners are 20-5 (.800) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .672.

The Mariners are 23-5 (.821) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Padres are 6-24 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .107.

The Padres are 13-4 (.765) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.

The Padres are 26-18 (.591) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .485.

The Padres are 39-10 (.796) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .163 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.

Mariners hitters have drawn 98 walks in 861 PA’s (11%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Mariners hitters have been successful in 81% of their bunt for hit attempts since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .168 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Padres hitters are slugging just .383 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

The Padres are batting just .224 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

Padres hitters have drawn 256 walks in 2,635 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Mariners pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Mariners pitchers have walked 5 of 125 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (14 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Padres have won 55% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 456.5

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .159 against Padres pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .215.

Padres pitchers have walked 44 of 739 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Padres vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Adrian Morejon (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D15
  • Steven Wilson (Padres): Hamstring, D15
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Luis Torrens (Mariners): Shoulder, D10
  • Taylor Trammell (Mariners): Hamstring, D10
  • Kyle Lewis (Mariners): Concussion, D7
  • Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Evan White (Mariners): Hernia, D60
  • Mitchell Haniger (Mariners): Ankle, D60
  • Tyler France (Mariners): Elbow, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.