Mariners vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 9

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(AP Photo/Derrick Tuskan)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 09, 2024, 11:00 AM
  • The Mariners are -145 favorites vs the Padres
  • Mariners vs Padres Over / Under today: 8 Runs
  • Mariners / Padres TV Channel: RTNW | PDTV | MLBN

The Seattle Mariners (-145) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (+120) on Tuesday, July 9, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.

This season, the Mariners are 49-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 48-46 ATS.

Mariners vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert 5-5, 2.93 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Adam Mazur 1-2, 7.53 ERA

Mariners vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mariners-1.5 +115O 8 -115-145
Padres +1.5 -140U 8 -105+120

Mariners vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 58.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:

  • J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+17.65 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 21 away games (+17.25 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Ty France has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 32 games (+14.90 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+12.05 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Josh Rojas has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+11.90 Units / 35% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)
  • Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+13.55 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+11.50 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Kyle Higashioka has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+11.20 Units / 140% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 28 away games (+9.40 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 59 games (+6.65 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 16 away games (+1.35 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 39 games (+1.25 Units / 2% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 16 games at home (+11.85 Units / 68% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+9.25 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+7.85 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 62 games (+6.95 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.90 Units / 32% ROI)

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 41-51 against the Run Line (-15.45 Units / -12.89% ROI).

  • 49-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -2.52% ROI
  • 37-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.15 Units / -18.26% ROI
  • 51-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.15 Units / 10.03% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 48-46 against the Run Line (+3.85 Units / 3.29% ROI).

  • 49-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.9 Units / -4.01% ROI
  • 51-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.3 Units / 5.17% ROI
  • 42-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.55 Units / -13.92% ROI

Padres vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cal Raleigh (SEA) 0.5 +300 0.5 -375
Mitch Garver (SEA) 0.5 +375 0.5 -500
Jorge Polanco (SEA) 0.5 +475 0.5 -700
Dominic Canzone (SEA) 0.5 +500 0.5 -700
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) 0.5 +500 0.5 -700

Padres vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Manny Machado (SD) 0.5 -225 0.5 +170
Cal Raleigh (SEA) 0.5 -210 0.5 +160
J.P. Crawford (SEA) 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Ty France (SEA) 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Donovan Solano (SD) 0.5 -200 0.5 +150

Padres vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cal Raleigh (SEA) 0.5 +135 0.5 -175
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) 0.5 +140 0.5 -185
Mitch Garver (SEA) 0.5 +170 0.5 -225
Manny Machado (SD) 0.5 +170 0.5 -225
Jorge Polanco (SEA) 0.5 +180 0.5 -250

Padres vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Logan Gilbert (SEA) 4.5 -140 4.5 +105
Adam Mazur (SD) 4.5 -120 4.5 -110

Logan Gilbert has induced opposing hitters to ground into 13 double plays in 51 opportunities (26%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.

Logan Gilbert has thrown his slider 49% of the time (139/286) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.

Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .222 (162 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .199 (84-for-422) against Logan Gilbert this season — tied for 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 93rd Percentile.

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Adam Mazur has limited playing time.

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Mariners are 100-17 (.855) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.

The Mariners are 28-2 (.933) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

The Mariners are 20-10 (.667) after a home win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .522.

The Mariners are 93-15 (.861) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .788.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Padres are just 0-40 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .056.

The Padres are just 31-107 (.225) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.

The Padres are just 4-167 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.

The Padres are just 1-106 (.009) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.

The Mariners are batting just .201 with two outs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .233.

Mariners hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Mariners are batting just .125 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.

Mariners hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Padres hitters have an OBP of .383 (424 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .329.

Padres hitters have just 186 strikeouts in 1,085 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Padres are batting .277 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.

Padres hitters have just 46 strikeouts in 337 PA’s (14%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 18% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 3.14 (1182.0 IP) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.

Mariners pitchers have walked 40 of 817 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.

The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0

Padres pitchers have an ERA of 4.53 (443.0 IP) at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.

The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (6,206 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9

Padres vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
  • Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
  • Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
  • Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
  • Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
  • Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
  • Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.