- The – are favorites vs the –
- Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby
- Phillies starting pitcher: Matthew Strahm
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Seattle Mariners () visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies () on Thursday, April 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Mariners vs Phillies Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 11-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 10-15 ATS.
Mariners vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | O | ||
| Phillies | U |
Mariners vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+12.05 Units / 59% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 23 games (+9.50 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+8.40 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+15.30 Units / 62% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+11.40 Units / 88% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.50 Units / 42% ROI)
Phillies vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Garrett Stubbs | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
Phillies vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Garrett Stubbs | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -135 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
Phillies vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Garrett Stubbs | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -500 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
Phillies vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| George Kirby | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
| Matt Strahm | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -160 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 21 games (+3.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 21 games (+3.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.50 Units / 28% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.75 Units / 27% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 10-14 against the Run Line (-4.95 Units / -16.28% ROI).
- 11-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.3 Units / -15.59% ROI
- 13-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.95 Units / 7.32% ROI
- 10-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.3 Units / -16.38% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 10-15 against the Run Line (-9.85 Units / -28.76% ROI).
- 12-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.1 Units / -13.51% ROI
- 12-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.25 Units / -8.15% ROI
- 13-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (62/382) against George Kirby on breaking pitches since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 0 Percentile.
George Kirby has a strike rate of 71% (136/191) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (75/471) against George Kirby on non-fastballs since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 0 Percentile.
George Kirby’s has 8 strikeouts and no walks — tied for best in MLB K:BB ratio over the last two weeks; League Avg: 3.1 — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .080 (2-for-25) against Matt Strahm on low fastballs since last season — 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .266 — 98th Percentile.
Matt Strahm has thrown elevated pitches 61% of the time (45/74) when behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .130 (7-for-54) against Matt Strahm this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: .256 — 98th Percentile.
Matt Strahm has a strikeout rate of 38% (27 SO in 71 PAs) this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 97th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Mariners are just 9-4 (.692) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Mariners are just 0-10 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .038.
The Mariners are just 0-9 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .098.
The Mariners are 6-76 (.073) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .045.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Phillies are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 17-68 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Phillies are 8-1 (.889) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Phillies are 21-20 (.512) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .169 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .218 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Mariners hitters have 22 extra-base hits out of 42 total hits (52%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .269 (223 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
28% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
The Phillies are batting .336 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Phillies hitters have a groundball batting average of .379 with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .258.
Phillies hitters are slugging .534 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Mariners pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners pitchers have allowed a slugging percentage of just .349 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Mariners pitchers have walked 1,014 of 13,061 batters (8%) since the 2021 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 9 double plays in 167 opportunities (5%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 5.78 (109.0 IP) on the road this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.38.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .258 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Phillies vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Phillies): Forearm, Day-to-Day
- Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Nicholas Nelson (Phillies): Hamstring, D15
- Andrew Bellatti (Phillies): Tricep, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Elbow, D10
- Taylor Trammell (Mariners): Hand, D10
- Andrés Muñoz (Mariners): Deltoid, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D15
- Dylan Moore (Mariners): Olique, D10
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
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