- The Rangers (41-45) are -125 favorites vs the Mariners (47-42)
- Mariners starting pitcher: Marco Gonzales (5-9), 3.24 ERA
- Rangers starting pitcher: Martín Pérez (7-2), 2.71 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Seattle Mariners (+105) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (-125) on Thursday, July 14, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Arlington.
The Rangers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Mariners vs Rangers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mariners are 47-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 51-35 ATS.
Mariners vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 -110 | +105 |
| Rangers | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -110 | -125 |
Mariners vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Thursday‘s matchup with 63.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Rangers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 26 away games (+15.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 22 away games (+8.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 9 away games (+7.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 20 games (+6.65 Units / 33% ROI)
Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nate Lowe has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 30 games (+10.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the RBIs Over in 17 of his last 30 games (+9.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 47 games (+8.00 Units / 8% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.05 Units / 73% ROI)
- Marcus Semien has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.05 Units / 72% ROI)
Rangers vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adolis Garcia | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Charlie Culberson | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Corey Seager | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jonah Heim | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Kole Calhoun | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
Rangers vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adolis Garcia | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Charlie Culberson | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
| Corey Seager | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jonah Heim | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Kole Calhoun | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
Rangers vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adolis Garcia | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Charlie Culberson | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -550 |
| Corey Seager | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jonah Heim | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kole Calhoun | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
Rangers vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Perez | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 -110 |
| Marco Gonzales | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -140 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 21 games (+15.25 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 15 away games (+9.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+8.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 23 away games (+7.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 away games (+6.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rangers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 75 games (+20.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 29 of their last 47 games (+13.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 66 games (+5.15 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 32 games at home (+3.33 Units / 9% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 46-43 against the Run Line (-2.75 Units / -2.3% ROI).
- 47-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.05 Units / 4.78% ROI
- 42-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -7 Units / -7.19% ROI
- 45-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.45 Units / -1.46% ROI
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 51-35 against the Run Line (+13 Units / 11.59% ROI).
- 41-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.65 Units / -2.7% ROI
- 39-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.6 Units / -3.79% ROI
- 39-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.7 Units / -3.91% ROI
Marco Gonzales: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marco Gonzales has a strikeout rate of just 26% (49 SO in 187 PAs) with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (1,236/2,674) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has a strikeout rate of just 6% (7 SO in 111 PAs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 21% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 14% (38/278) against Marco Gonzales this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Martín Pérez: Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .162 (13-for-80) against Martin Perez on inside fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .262 — 97th Percentile.
Martin Perez has walked 4 of 106 batters (4%) with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 98th Percentile.
Martin Perez has a strikeout rate of 29% (26 SO in 91 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% (167/320) against Martin Perez this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 91st Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Mariners are 35-1 (.972) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Mariners are 35-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Mariners are 5-38 (.116) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Mariners are 22-5 (.815) when scoring in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .661.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Rangers are 22-4 (.846) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
The Rangers are just 31-6 (.838) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Rangers are 4-34 (.105) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Rangers are 6-34 (.150) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .161 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Mariners hitters have drawn 99 walks in 878 PA’s (11%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners hitters have an OPS of 1.059 (55 PA’s) against LHP this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Mariners are batting just .301 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .294 (7,831 PA’s) against RHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .296 (6,369 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .297 (2,792 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .286 (5,753 PA’s) on the road since the start of 2020 — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Mariners pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 3 of 110 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Rangers pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rangers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rangers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 59% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Rangers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Rangers vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Elijah White (Rangers): Wrist, D60
- Mitchell Garver (Rangers): Forearm, D60
- Dane Dunning (Rangers): Ankle, D15
- Jonathan Hernández (Rangers): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Barlow (Rangers): Blister, D15
- Taylor Trammell (Mariners): Hamstring, D10
- Kyle Lewis (Mariners): Concussion, D7
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Hernia, D60
- Kenneth Giles (Mariners): Shoulder, D15
- Mitchell Haniger (Mariners): Ankle, D60
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