- The Mariners are -125 favorites vs the Rays
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo
- Rays starting pitcher: Zack Littell
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The Seattle Mariners (-125) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (+105) on Thursday, September 7, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Mariners vs Rays Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 78-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 73-66 ATS.
Mariners vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +135 | O 8.5 -115 | -125 |
| Rays | +1.5 -160 | U 8.5 -105 | +105 |
Mariners vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 59.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 49 games (+15.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 34 games (+13.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 49 games (+13.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+12.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+12.95 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Isaac Paredes has hit the RBIs Over in 17 of his last 32 games (+11.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- Harold Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 27 games (+9.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- Zach Eflin has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+7.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+7.75 Units / 26% ROI)
Rays vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Rays vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
Rays vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
Rays vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Littell | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
| Luis Castillo | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -110 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 59 games (+14.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 38 games (+12.19 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 29 games (+12.18 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.14 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 33 away games (+9.55 Units / 22% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 68 games at home (+14.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 29 games at home (+12.54 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 42 of their last 70 games at home (+12.07 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 71 games at home (+9.35 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 71 games at home (+8.40 Units / 11% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 69-70 against the Run Line (-3 Units / -1.7% ROI).
- 78-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.7 Units / -0.84% ROI
- 70-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.55 Units / -1% ROI
- 65-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.2 Units / -7.37% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 73-66 against the Run Line (+7.55 Units / 4.57% ROI).
- 85-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.25 Units / 3.72% ROI
- 74-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.85 Units / 4.45% ROI
- 61-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.35 Units / -12.74% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .113 (17-for-151) against Luis Castillo’s elevated fastball this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .225 — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has induced opposing hitters to ground into just 2 double plays in 94 opportunities (2%) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — first Percentile.
Luis Castillo has thrown fastballs 61% of the time (536/883) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 96th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .205 (59-for-288) against Luis Castillo this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .245 — 94th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Littell has allowed a slugging percentage of .473 (204 Total Bases / 431 ABs) since last season — 4th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .363 — second Percentile.
Zack Littell has walked 8 of 273 right-handed batters (3%) since last season — best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Littell has allowed an OPS of .966 (105 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .653 — first Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .305 (80-for-262) against Zack Littell since last season — 6th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .229 — sixth Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Mariners are 12-6 (.667) after a win as underdogs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .435.
The Mariners are 42-4 (.913) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Mariners are 59-9 (.868) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .779.
The Mariners are 31-72 (.301) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .208.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Rays are 15-5 (.750) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 46-12 (.793) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .688.
The Rays are just 10-22 (.312) after a win as underdogs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Rays are just 3-8 (.273) after a win as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .435.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .122 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Mariners hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Mariners are batting just .119 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .174 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays are batting .264 on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .781 (4,186 PA’s) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .769 (1,619 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Rays hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 346 of 5,148 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 69% of opposing batters this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 797 of 11,178 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 82 of 1,249 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 169 of 2,689 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays pitchers have walked 769 of 11,093 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Jason Adam (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Shane McClanahan (Rays): Forearm, D60
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Manuel Margot (Rays): Elbow, D10
- Emerson Hancock (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Thumb, D10
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Jarred Kelenic (Mariners): Foot, D10
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