- The Rays are -155 favorites vs the Mariners
- Mariners starting pitcher: –
- Rays starting pitcher: Aaron Civale
- Watch the game on Fox Sports 1
The Seattle Mariners (+125) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-155) on Saturday, September 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Mariners vs Rays Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 79-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 75-66 ATS.
Mariners vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -160 | O 8.5 +100 | +125 |
| Rays | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -120 | -155 |
Mariners vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 56.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 36 games (+16.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+13.90 Units / 62% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 38 games (+12.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+12.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- Dominic Canzone has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.65 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Isaac Paredes has hit the RBIs Over in 18 of his last 34 games (+12.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Under in his last 8 games (+10.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- Harold Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in his last 5 games at home (+9.15 Units / 183% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 29 games (+8.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- Harold Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+8.05 Units / 27% ROI)
Rays vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Rays vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
Rays vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Rays vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Civale | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -105 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 61 games (+14.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 31 games (+14.28 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 40 games (+14.19 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 65 games (+10.34 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 35 away games (+7.55 Units / 17% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 70 games at home (+14.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 31 games at home (+12.49 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 43 of their last 72 games at home (+11.62 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 73 games at home (+10.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 73 games at home (+9.35 Units / 7% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 69-72 against the Run Line (-5 Units / -2.8% ROI).
- 79-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.85 Units / -0.9% ROI
- 71-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.6 Units / -1.02% ROI
- 66-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.2 Units / -7.27% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 75-66 against the Run Line (+9.55 Units / 5.67% ROI).
- 86-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.25 Units / 3.68% ROI
- 75-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.8 Units / 4.35% ROI
- 62-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.35 Units / -12.56% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryan Woo has thrown fastballs 74% of the time (823/1,116) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 32% (62/196) against Bryan Woo this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 16% (11/67) against Bryan Woo on inside fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 32% (45/142) against Bryan Woo on fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Civale has allowed a slugging percentage of just .353 (103 Total Bases / 292 ABs) on pitches in the strike zone this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: .507 — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Civale has thrown his cutter 45% of the time (737/1,647) vs left-handed batters since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total CUT; League Avg: 18% — 97th Percentile.
Aaron Civale has thrown his cutter 48% of the time (212/437) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total CUT; League Avg: 20% — 95th Percentile.
Aaron Civale has allowed an OPS of just .615 (437 PA’s) this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: .740 — 97th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Mariners are 16-25 (.390) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Mariners are 82-10 (.891) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Mariners are 52-43 (.547) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Mariners are 12-6 (.667) after a win as underdogs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .434.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Rays are just 10-23 (.303) after a win as underdogs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Rays are 15-5 (.750) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 64-3 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .897.
The Rays are just 3-9 (.250) after a win as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .119 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Mariners are batting just .123 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Mariners hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mariners hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters are slugging .513 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .780 (4,258 PA’s) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .780 (2,715 PA’s) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Rays are batting .264 on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 354 of 5,220 batters (7%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 2 of 113 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 178 of 2,724 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 805 of 11,250 batters (7%) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 1,209 of 17,160 batters (7%) since the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 24 of 438 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Rays pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have walked 773 of 11,162 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Jason Adam (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Shane McClanahan (Rays): Forearm, D60
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Manuel Margot (Rays): Elbow, D10
- Emerson Hancock (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Thumb, D10
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Jarred Kelenic (Mariners): Foot, D10
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