- The Mariners are -120 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Seattle Mariners (-120) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+100) on Monday, May 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Mariners vs Red Sox Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 20-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 22-19 ATS.
Mariners vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +135 | O 10 -115 | -120 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -160 | U 10 -105 | +100 |
Mariners vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 66.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 32 games (+16.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 32 games (+16.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+14.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 32 games (+12.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+9.10 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 17 of his last 28 games (+13.35 Units / 48% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 30 games (+11.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 36 games (+11.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+11.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.95 Units / 52% ROI)
Red Sox vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
Red Sox vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| J.P. Crawford | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -225 |
Red Sox vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Red Sox vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| George Kirby | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 13 away games (+5.75 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.95 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 away games (+4.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.75 Units / 56% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 41 games (+13.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 41 games (+11.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 28 games (+9.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 35 games (+4.35 Units / 9% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 20-20 against the Run Line (+0.4 Units / 0.81% ROI).
- 20-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.3 Units / -9.23% ROI
- 18-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.5 Units / -12.2% ROI
- 21-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.6 Units / 3.71% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 22-19 against the Run Line (+0.75 Units / 1.43% ROI).
- 22-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.65 Units / 10% ROI
- 26-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.8 Units / 26.43% ROI
- 13-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.1 Units / -35.19% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
George Kirby has a strike rate of 73% (238/327) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 98th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 3 of 175 batters (2%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has a strike rate of 71% (459/644) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 1 of 85 left-handed batters (1%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 11% (6/54) against Tanner Houck this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
8 of Tanner Houck’s 29 breaking pitch strikeouts (28%) were backdoor in 2022 — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Tanner Houck allowed a slugging percentage of just .227 (30 Total Bases / 132 ABs) against right-handed batters in 2022 — 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .358 — 98th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed an OPS of just .506 (74 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: .733 — 95th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Mariners are 16-9 (.640) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners are 48-8 (.857) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Mariners are 87-2 (.978) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .953.
The Mariners are 19-47 (.288) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .198.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Red Sox are 11-15 (.423) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .206.
The Red Sox are just 19-2 (.905) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Red Sox are just 2-15 (.118) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Red Sox are just 7-80 (.080) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .124.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .200 (175 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.
The Mariners are batting just .172 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Mariners are batting just .309 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.
Mariners hitters have drawn 221 walks in 2,166 PA’s (10%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters are slugging 1.054 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .556.
The Red Sox are batting .454 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .351.
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .290 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .251.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 21 of 420 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Mariners pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 108 of 1,488 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have allowed a slugging percentage of just .333 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 25 of 362 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Red Sox have have still managed to win 56% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox pitchers have won 54% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Red Sox vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Hamstring, D10
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D15
- Andrés Muñoz (Mariners): Deltoid, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D15
- Dylan Moore (Mariners): Olique, D10
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
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